The Clock
It’s twelve hours since Iran launched missile attacks against US bases in Iraq. According to the Pentagon there were no US casualties. According to Iran up to eighty Americans were killed. Everyone is entitled to their own facts, I guess.
The United States and Iran are at a breathless “pause”. Each has climbed the ladder of escalation. After months of tit-for-tat actions in the Persian Gulf, the Iranian backed militia Hezbollah bombed an Iraqi base and an American contractor was killed. The US responded by bombing three of the militia’s bases. Hezbollah responded by attacking the US Embassy in Baghdad. The US responded with a drone strike that killed Iran’s number two leader on the road to the Baghdad airport. And then Iran responded with last night’s missile strike.
The world is waiting for President Trump’s response. He supposedly will speak to us all this morning, and what he says will determine how far our current crisis will go. If the President is “all talk” but no further action, then there is time. If he launches further strikes, we will be back on the ladder, climbing to war.
Enter the Peacemakers
After these actions, the United States and Iran are unlikely to “sit down” with each other. The assassination of General Soleimani placed the two sides far beyond the ability to talk face to face. So who can mediate, what world leader can step in and say to both sides that they have risked too much, and taken world fears too close to reality?
The Swiss legation in Tehran right now represents American interests. But the Swiss have never been peacemakers; they are instead honest brokers in a world where honesty is rare. They aren’t the ones to bring peace. And the United States often uses the government of Pakistan to communicate to Iran, but we really don’t trust them. Pakistan has so much at stake in the outcome that their own interests outweigh their ability to broker a deal.
French President Macron could serve as the go-between. France has economic interests in Iran that makes them committed to peace, and Macron’s on and off relationship with Trump might be effective. But while France could negotiate, they aren’t in a position to force a deal between two parties that have gone so far.
So who’s left? There’s one world leader who has enough respect from Trump, and can pressure the Iranian mullahs to accept the personal insult of Soleimani’s death. He’s waiting for his chance to be the world leader, to take charge on the global stage. And he’s already moving into position, speaking to the European and Turkish leaders.
It’s Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia!!!! (I feel like there should be a Hamilton moment, a fanfare like – Hercules Mulligan!!)
Putin’s Eye on the Prize
Keep in mind Putin’s ultimate goal: to bring Russia back to the stature of the Soviet Empire of the early 1980’s. So he’s been in Europe in the last week, and was in Ankara, the capital of Turkey just days ago. Putin has been allied with Iran in the Middle East for the past several years, including helping Iran keep Syrian President Bashar Assad in power. And even in the past few days, as relations between Iraq and the United States have deteriorated Putin has made offers of military assistance to the Iraqi government.
Putin’s Russia is a major player in the Middle East. Russian troops have taken over the American outposts in Northern Syria. Russia has already made arms sales to Turkey, ostensibly a NATO ally of the United States. By becoming a force in the Middle East, Russia becomes an economic factor when it comes to controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and European oil supplies.
America’s allies have questions. Why did the US abandon the Kurds in Syria, but move troops to protect Syrian oil fields? Why did the US go from a tit-for-tat response to Iranian provocations, to assassinating the second most powerful government figure in the country? In short, can America be trusted as a stable partner.
So if not the US, then Putin. He can become the “new” peacemaker, and by doing so, gain more influence over the Middle East, Europe, and the world. The era of “Pax Americana” may be over. “Pax Rodina” may be coming.
