It’s tough to look at the current political situation in America dispassionately, and I’m probably not the guy to do it. But I do think there are verifiable “facts” that can be agreed on, even across the divide of Republican to Democrat.
With an Iron Fist
Donald Trump has captured the Republican Party. We see it in every poll, no matter what the President does, probably including “shooting someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue;” there is a hard core of Republicans that will follow him. How strong is that core? Well in the polling of all voters, it ranges around 36% of the total.
But in the Republican Party, that’s somewhere over 80%. The days of the 1960’s and my father’s “Rockefeller Republicans” or even the 2008 “McCain Republicans” are over; this is the era of Trump. (Yep, Utah is the exception that proves the point, the only Republican state that Trump can’t control, thus Mitt Romney. He couldn’t win anywhere else.)
We see those “old school” Republicans standing sadly on the sidelines. The Party they grew up and loved is gone; they either must swallow Trumpism or step out of the political life. We know them: David Jolly the former Congressman from Florida, now an independent, John Kasich the former Governor of Ohio, Nicolle Wallace, a Bush advisor now on MSNBC, or George Conway, the conservative lawyer who happens to be married to White House advisor Kelly-Ann.
But for Republicans who want to stay in politics, there is little choice. Democrats (like me) naively wait for the “Profiles and Courage” moment when they will stand for country over Party, but it’s not going to happen. 80% or more of Republicans support Trump. And the President has made it clear that he will brook neither interference nor rebellion. He will stomp the fire out with a tweet, calling on “his” voters to turn on the violator. Ask Mark Sanford of South Carolina.
Mike Pence
So for those Republican leaders who remain, what course can they find in this new era?
Some have Presidential ambitions after the Trump Presidency is over. Vice President Pence finds himself dragged into controversy, perhaps even being the messenger of “quid pro quo” to the Ukrainian Government. But for Pence the course is clear; he will support the President, stand with the President, and do whatever works the President demands. In return, he hopes that Trump will grant him the mantle of Trumpism, and lead him to the Presidency in 2024.
Jeff Sessions
Senator turned Attorney General Jeff Sessions was an early acolyte. But Sessions, for all of his unattractive political qualities (“Ahh du not ree-caull”) was unwilling to go all the way for the President. He wasn’t a “Roy Cohn,” he turned out to still have principles that he would not give way. Sessions recused himself from the Russia investigation, he betrayed President Trump in the worst possible way. He failed to protect him, and now he’s so gone that he doesn’t even seem to be able to run for his old Senate seat in Alabama.
The new Attorney General Bill Barr knows better. He knows his role – protect the President at all costs.
Mick Mulvaney
Office of Management and Budget Director and Acting Chief of Staff and former Freedom Caucus leader Mick Mulvaney (there’s a title for you) had hopes to succeed to the mantle. That was why he walked out in that press conference, and confessed the whole story: quid pro quo, promises, favors, and all. “Get over it” he said, that’s how we do business.
Mulvaney strikes me as an Icarus; he has flown too close to the Trumpian sun. Like Anthony Scaramucci (now an anti-Trumper) he melted down when the pressure was greatest. Trump hates the weak, and the losers. Now Mick will need to go be President of the University of South Carolina, soon to be thrust out of the Presidential orbit. He’ll need to get over it.
Lindsey Graham
Lindsey Graham wants to be President too. And he, of all of the other Presidents-in-waiting, has felt the lash of Trump’s attacks. Trump called him a loser, an idiot, and a lightweight. And Trump publicly released Graham’s cellphone number. The best Graham could do; destroy his phone in a campaign ad (YouTube.) He looked weak and bullied, and it was another step in his failed 2016 campaign.
So instead of standing against Trump, as his best friend John McCain did, Lindsey told us exactly what he was going to do. “I’m no John McCain” was part of his final words about his friend. And Graham then pivoted to become the President’s “best friend” and defender in the Senate. He made his “bones” with Trump at the Kavanaugh hearing, when he fired the “prosecutor” and ranted and raved against the Democrats.
Graham has not turned back since. This week he’s stated that he won’t read or listen to the “illegitimate” evidence in the House impeachment investigation. He’s already made up his mind: the President is innocent. Lindsey is hoping that in the internal Party battle to follow Trump, the 80% will remember who was the loudest defender of the President when things were at the worst. His strategy may well work, regardless of whether Trump survives his term in office.
Mike Pompeo
And finally, The Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, is the most ambitious man in Republican politics. He doesn’t want to become the President; he knows he will be the President. Pompeo has built his resume carefully, developing a base in Kansas, serving the Party in the House, and now in the Cabinet. Of the Trump “replacements,” it is Pompeo who has the best “exit” strategy. Should things really look bad and impeachment and removal possible, Pompeo will return to Kansas and run for Senate. There’s no place like home, and home is where he can rebuild his political dreams.
And what if the House impeachment hearings reveal so much, that it somehow is even worse than shooting someone on Fifth Avenue? What if the true Constitutional “high crime” is too great to ignore? Than the sinking of Donald Trump will drag down the hopefuls, Pence and Graham. But the wily Pompeo, he will survive. His ambition is all-consuming, but it is also all-protecting.
