It’s November of 2019. In exactly one year, the citizens of the United States will be going to the polls. The will choose a President, the entire House of Representatives, and one third of the Senate. They will have a choice of either continuing “Trumpism” or putting an end to the radical regression that his “reign” represents.
Watch the Process
We aren’t the only ones making that choice. The narrow Brexit victory of 2016 in the United Kingdom predicted the rise of Trump in the United States. The voters of the UK will be returning to the polls this December, trying one more time to untie the political Gordian knot that Brexit has created. It will be instructive not only in its outcome, but in how external forces impact the voting.
Cambridge Analytica, a prime force in the original Brexit verdict is no longer around; but the voter identification and persuasion techniques they pioneered are still available to others. And while voters are more aware now of the impact of State actors like Russian Intelligence, than they were in 2016; it’s likely the Russians will still try to influence the UK’s choice.
At stake, both in the UK and the US, is our faith in the fundamental security of our election process. Regardless of the outcome, these tests will determine whether we believe in Democracy or not. American national security expert Malcolm Nance warns, “…This may be the last free and fair election in America.” If we lose faith in the veracity of the outcome, we will have no motivation to participate.
Endless Campaigns
Voter turnout in the United Kingdom averages over 70% (Research Briefings.) The US turnout is dramatically lower, with 56% voting in the 2016 election (Pew.) Should citizens come to believe that their votes are manipulated or not counted; then even fewer will vote, making it even easier to alter the outcome.
So in the next weeks and months, there’s a lot at stake in the US and the UK.
By the way, the UK at least knows how to “rip the bandage off.” Their election campaign is six weeks long. Here in the US, we have already been debating and campaigning, narrowing candidates for the President since last winter. And we have fifty-two weeks to go. It will be tough to get anything else accomplished: we may be paralyzed by the preparations to make a decision.
We are already mired in that indecision. As the Democrat controlled House of Representatives investigates impeachment, the Republican Senate is contemplating whether it’s “proper” to hold a trial on the President’s actions in an election year.
Avoiding Decisions
There is existing precedent for this. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Majority Leader of the Senate, determined in 2016 that the Senate could not consider a Supreme Court appointment during an election cycle. McConnell ignored Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s choice for the open seat on the Court. He instead successfully gambled on a Trump victory in the election, and gained the opportunity to fill the vacancy with Neil Gorsuch instead.
Republican are already making their “case” for not following through on an impeachment trial, or worse, issuing a “summary judgment” to avoid a decision. It’s easy to imagine them arguing that, while the President’s behavior is egregious, it doesn’t rise to the level of “high crimes and misdemeanors.” They may hide behind the “fig leaf” of protecting the “decision of the people,” pass the buck, and prolong the indecision until November of 2020.
Trump is not Trumpism
Even the Senate removing Donald Trump from office wouldn’t completely alter the arc of US politics. Trump is a force unto himself, but his ideology is entrenched into a significant portion of the American political body. We already can see others maneuvering to inherit his political legacy, Lindsey Graham and Mike Pence to name two.
So even in the unlikely even that the President is removed from office, it won’t mean “the end” of anything. It still requires an election to determine the course of America.
It’s all in the year ahead.
