Quid Pro Quo
President Trump demanded that the Ukrainian Government investigate Joe Biden. He had “an offer they couldn’t refuse;” either start a public inquiry into Biden, or not receive the military aid they desperately needed to fight Russia.
And Trump has done this before. On the White House lawn he asked China to investigate Biden. This deal was less obvious, but the US was literally sitting at the negotiating table with China at that moment. And of course, there is the famous line: “Russia, if you’re listening, find Hillary Clinton’s 30,000 emails…” Russian military intelligence began attacking Clinton’s servers almost immediately.
So President Trump has asked foreign nations to help against his political opponents quite often. This isn’t a “question;” he’s said it “in the public square.” It is fact. But he’s not the first President to try to manipulate other nations for domestic political gain. He, in true Trumpian fashion, just takes it “to the max” and does it out in the open.
There are at least two other times when Presidential candidates offered some kind of deal, a “quid pro quo” to a foreign power. Both actions are still shrouded in history; as much rumor and legend as fact. But perhaps more importantly, they were done by two Presidents that Donald Trump respects as role models: Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.
1968 Election
The year 1968 was one of the most divisive times in American history. There was a nexus of movements: the civil rights movement, the anti-Vietnam war movement, and the “hippie” movement all came to a head. It was the year of assassinations; both Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy were killed in the spring. It was a year of protest, riot, and demands for change.
Politically Democrats were split. It was the party of war, with President Johnson orchestrating. And it was also the party of dissent, with Eugene McCarthy and later Bobby Kennedy running for the Democratic Presidential nomination on anti-war platforms. McCarthy was so effective that Johnson dropped out of the race, his spot taken by his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey.
This left the Party fractured, with McCarthy not having enough backing from the “old line” party members, and Kennedy gone. Humphrey won the nomination, but it was a tarnished victory. Rioting tore the Chicago Convention apart, and the heavy-handed tactics of Chicago’s Mayor Daley made any kind of unification impossible.
The Republicans nominated Richard Nixon, who came back from defeats in 1960 and 1962 . Nixon touted his secret “peace plan” to end the war, but absolutely didn’t align himself with anti-war forces.
Secret Plan
Humphrey was tied to Johnson and the war. Johnson was attempting to negotiate a ceasefire with the North Vietnamese in Paris, an “October Surprise” that could tip the balance in the highly divided election.
Nixon was desperately afraid that Johnson would end the war before the election, assuring Humphrey’s victory. He turned to a shadowy figure in American history, Anna Chenault, the widow of World War II general Claire Chenault and a powerful figure in the Republican Party. Nixon tasked Chenault with making sure that the South Vietnamese government, our allies, refused to cooperate with President Johnson in the Paris negotiations (Politico.)
The “quid pro quo:” if the South Vietnamese government tanked the peace conference, Nixon would get South Vietnam a “better deal” when he became President.
Johnson knew about it before the election. He called Republican leaders, and Nixon himself, demanding that they stop. Of course they denied any knowledge of Chenault’s actions. But Johnson didn’t reveal any of this to the public, and on Election Day, Nixon eked out victory over Humphrey by .7% of the popular vote.
When Nixon took office, he “doubled down” on US involvement in the War and support of the South Vietnamese government. It took seven more years for the United States to fully leave Vietnam, and when we did, the South Vietnamese government was totally defeated. Today Vietnam remains one of the few solidly Communist nations in the world.
A Hostage in the White House
Forty years ago, on November 4th, 1979, fifty-two Americans were taken hostage in the US Embassy in Tehran, Iran. The American ally, the Shah of Iran, was overthrown, and Muslim hardliners lead by the Ayatollah Khomeini had control. The Shah was exiled to the United States; Iran wanted to trade them for the Shah.
President Jimmy Carter struggled to find a way to free the hostages. It was a year from the 1980 Presidential election and the crisis became the most important issue. Carter attempted to rescue them, the first use of the new “Delta Force.” Dust storms and inexperience caused the operation to fail, and the Iranians were left with abandoned helicopters to use as a display of American ineptness.
Early on, Carter promised not to campaign until the hostages were freed, and while he ultimately came out, it was another example of his inability to control the situation.
What Iran Needs
Ronald Reagan, former Governor of California, was the Republican candidate for President in 1980. The threat of an “October Surprise,” Carter freeing the hostages; was the key to victory.
Reagan’s actions are still obscured. In the middle of the campaign summer of 1980, campaign manager William Casey (later appointed director of the CIA) went to Madrid, Spain. At that time, he supposedly met with Iranian officials, and offered incentives for a “better deal” if they held the hostages until after the election, avoiding a Carter “October Surprise” (LA Times.)
Reagan won an overwhelming victory over Carter. The Iranians announced that the hostages would be freed on Reagan’s inauguration day. Jimmy Carter flew to Germany to meet them. Not long after, the Reagan administration allowed Israel to sell US made anti-tank weapons to Iran, to use in their ongoing conflict with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
Facts and Rumors
We now know that the story of Nixon and Anna Chenault is true. What Reagan did or didn’t do is still not as clear. But we can draw some conclusions. The Trump Presidency clearly is influenced by Nixon’s actions. Roger Stone, who began his political career as a Nixon “dirty trickster,” has had tremendous political sway over Donald Trump.
And Reagan legacy is the Trump “touchstone.” “Making America Great Again” and Trump’s fixation with “Wall” (Trump wants to build one, Reagan wanted one tore down) are intentional echoes of the Reagan Presidency.
Trump is so drawn to the two Presidents, is it really isn’t a surprise that he would follow their example of using foreign intervention to influence American elections? Creating or avoiding the “October Surprise” is a Republican tradition; Trump is simply bringing it out to the full light of public scrutiny: ask Hillary Clinton.
