“Leave the Gun; Take the Cannoli” – Peter Clemenza, after a murder, from the movie: The Godfather
Not Really Leaving Syria
In didn’t take many US forces to keep Turkey from attacking America’s former allies, the Syrian Kurds. But in a single phone call, President Donald Trump agreed to pull those forces out, leaving the Kurds open to Turkish attack. While Mr. Trump claimed, “…he was bringing our soldiers home,” in fact he simply shuffled them back into Iraq, a country that doesn’t want them.
Except, that he didn’t even do that.
Now some US forces are staying in Northern Syria. And it’s not from some “regret” at abandoning the Syrian Kurds to Erdogan, Assad, and Putin. While alliance and loyalty seem to have little meaning to President Trump, what does attract his attention is money, and oil.
So now some US forces will remain in the eastern part of Northern Syria. They won’t be protecting the Kurds, but they will be protecting oil fields, a dark rewrite of Clemenza’s line: “Leave the Kurds, take the oil.”
It’s About Oil
Why are we concerned? According to Secretary of Defense Mark Esper (not Esperanto as the President tweeted) “A purpose of those forces, working with the SDF, is to deny access to those oil fields by ISIS and others who may benefit from revenues that could be earned.” (Foreign Policy.)
Wait – the President has said, over and over and over: “…ISIS is 100% DEFEATED, AND I DID IT!” So if they are 100% defeated, why do we need to leave troops to protect oil fields? Are we protecting them from ISIS, or are we protecting them from Syrian forces under Assad’s control? Or perhaps we are protecting them from Russian forces, “helping” Assad.
Oil is a major distraction for Mr. Trump. Throughout his recent political career he complained that the US should never have gone to war in Iraq. But he was quick to add, that once we did, we should have taken their oil revenues. And of course, the President is a close friend with the leaders of a major oil-producing nation, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He has even sent US troops to defend Saudi from Iran, at Saudi expense, of course. This is still true, despite the fact that the United States is supposedly energy independent and even exporting petroleum (Washington Post.)
The President’s fixation on oil may be the trait that his personal allies used to try to convince him to change his decision on Syria. Lindsey Graham literally took a map with him to the White House, pointing out exactly where the oil fields are located. It made Mr. Trump take pause, and re-think at least a portion of his plan.
For the Motherland
But the President’s “friend” Vladimir Putin took almost no time at all to fill the vacuum created by the US troop withdrawal. Not only is he interested in oil, but even more in making Russia the major player in the Middle East. This week he and Turkish President Erdogan redrew the map of Syria, creating a northern border zone patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops, and a neighboring zone controlled by the Syrian Assad government. The careful “ceasefire” negotiated by Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo was erased, just like the US military presence in the region.
And the hapless Syrian Kurds are left to make the best deal they can with the new power players.
Russia is fighting a campaign to regain the stature of the old Soviet Empire. Just as the US stood in their way in the Cold War, the US controlled their expansion in the current era. But the isolationist Trump Administration took a course allowing Russia to rebuild their influence. Russia is no longer worried about US reaction in Ukraine, nor are they concerned about what the US now does in the Middle East. And they are undermining other democracies throughout the world, attacking them through the fundamental process that makes democracies work: elections.
The election of more authoritarian regimes in Hungary, Italy and Brazil, the Brexit decision in the United Kingdom, and Russia’s continuing involvement in Syria: all are part of a greater plan of increased Russian influence. Just a couple years ago, hundreds of Russian mercenaries fighting in Syria were killed when they attacked US forces. Now the US has conceded our influence there.
The World Choses
In the Godfather, Clemenza was a prime lieutenant to the Godfather himself, Don Corleone. He supposedly died of a heart attack cooking for the “fellas,” but as one of the Corleone assassins said, “…that was no heart attack.” The United States is abandoning its role in the world, using the phrase “America First” to cover for isolationism. Is it a coincidence that the Russians supported the election of this administration? What can the rest of the world do?
Leave the Americans, take the Russians.
