The Middle East Equation

Donald Trump models himself as a man who is tough, ruthless, and spontaneous.   How did a man with that self-image let Recip Erdogan “scare” the United States out of Syria?  Donald Trump is the man who brags about how big his “button” is. Yet he let Turkey “have its way” with a US ally, the Kurds. And now thousands of imprisoned ISIS fighters may be released.

Why the Green Light?

There are lots of possibilities.  Perhaps Trump really didn’t think anything through, and wanted to please Erdogan.  Maybe the Turkish leader was embarrassed after his last disastrous visit to Washington, where his bodyguards ended up in a brawl outside the embassy.  Or, perhaps Trump was protecting his own Trump Organization, already heavily invested in Istanbul.  

Or for those who are more conspiratorial, perhaps the President, or his son-in-law, gave intelligence to the Saudis, enabling them to ambush and murder Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.  If Erdogan knew that happened, it would surely be a strong incentive for Trump to “knuckle under” to the Turkish demand.

Or the ultimate conspiracy:  Putin ordered Trump to let Turkey invade.  

In the age of Donald Trump, really anything is possible.  We don’t know how entangled Trump, or his family, are in the Middle East or Russia.  With the President so willing to ignore conflicts of interest, it wouldn’t really be a surprise.

The Middle Eastern Equation

So, since we are speculating, let me add a different twist to the story.  While we know that the Trump Organization is entangled everywhere, lets, for the moment, look beyond the personal financial interests of the President.  Let’s look at the equation of what’s going on throughout the Middle East, and see what the answer might be.

We know that the entire Trump Administration looks upon Iran as the existential threat to the Middle East.  They see Iran as the ultimate supporter of terrorism with their backing of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Yemeni revolution.  Trump also sees Iran as a potential nuclear threat to Israel, and as the force in the Middle East that cancels Israeli power.  

So if to the Trump Administration it’s “all about Iran,” how would their current actions in Syria play into that view?  

The Administration, from the very beginning, wanted to put pressure on Iran.  They withdrew from the Nuclear Deal, even though their own Intelligence services made it clear that Iran was abiding by the provisions.  The first foreign visit by the President was to Iran’s enemy Saudi Arabia.  The US has supported Saudi in their proxy war with Iran in Yemen.  And now, the US is sending thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia, to act as a “trip-wire” should the Saudi’s and Iran tangle.  The US troops will be the first casualties, guaranteeing US involvement.

Clearing the Deck

“Clear the Deck” is an old nautical term.  It means removing all of the clutter stored on the top deck of a wooden sailing ship, to prepare for battle.  “Clearing the Decks” is a step towards war.  The next step is to put sand on the deck, to keep the deck from growing slippery with the blood of the sailors fighting there.

Perhaps the President is “clearing the deck” for war with Iran.  Let’s look at the steps in an equation that may be leading to war. 

Turkish Supply Base

A US war in Iran requires a stable place to gather supplies, munitions, and troops.  It also requires established air bases to launch strikes against Iran, and fly close air support.  Turkey already offers all of these, including Incirlik Airbase where 5000 US servicemen are currently stationed, along with tactical nuclear weapons.  In short, to fight a war in Iran, the US needs Turkey to cooperate.

No One Coming Home

The President has announced it’s time “to bring the troops home.”  But they aren’t coming home, they are moving into position to threaten Iran.  The US troops in Syria have moved to Northern Iraq, oddly enough, the land of the Iraqi Kurds.  They are close to the Iranian border.

Rather than bringing troops home from “endless wars,” the President has sent thousands more to Saudi Arabia.  They aren’t there to fight off Yemeni rebels.

Wag the Dog

Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel has consistently lobbied for a military offensive against Iran.  He has a strong ally in the White House, long-time friend and Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner.  Should Netanyahu survive the political upheaval in Israeli politics today, he may well want a military action to unify his nation behind him.  What better than a war with Iran?

President Trump is facing sure impeachment, and possible removal.  But if he dodges removal from office, and faces election in 2020, what better way to unify HIS nation behind him, then a war in Iran.  He would see it as a justifiable “Wag the Dog.”

Our Friends in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has two things that President Trump loves:  oil and money.  The Saudis have often been willing to pay other nations to do “their dirty work.”  It should be no surprise that Saudi is paying the US for the troops coming now, and it shouldn’t’ be a surprise that Trump is taking the money.  You can hear him say, “It’s not costing us anything;” not adding that it’s putting American lives at risk for the Kingdom.

Staying in Afghanistan

And, speaking of troops coming home, why are we still in Afghanistan?  And why did the US reach a tentative agreement with the Taliban to end our involvement in the country, only to have the President throw it out?  Perhaps the President wants to maintain our forces and bases in Western Afghanistan, across the Iranian border.

No Inside Information

I don’t have any secret insight into the President, nor do I have any “inside information.”  And I hope I’m wrong.  It’s always possible that the Trump Administration is really as chaotic as it seems, and there is no “master plan.”  But this is the only “theory” that includes all of the US actions in the Middle East. It is a possible answer to the Middle East equation.

It’s just one more thing to worry about.