Attacking Biden
Commentators are making a lot out of many of the Democratic candidates attacking Elizabeth Warren in Tuesday’s Democratic Debate. They are writing Joe Biden’s obituary, saying that the others are leaving him alone because he is no longer relevant. Warren is the “new” front-runner, and that’s why she got the most “heat.”
There is some truth to this. Warren has moved up in the polls, currently tied with Biden in most. But there is a more important reason that Biden was left pretty much to himself in the fourth Democratic debate.
Biden is the target of Donald Trump. And it’s not just from the President’s infamous “tweets:” the President of the United States pressured the leaders of other countries to give him dirt on Biden. Trump may well be impeached for doing it. So what Democrat wants to align him or herself with Donald Trump against Joe Biden? That strategy just “sucks.” In fact, it was clear that several candidates, particularly Cory Booker, were ready to defend Biden against such attacks.
Knowing Tulsi
I didn’t know much about Tulsi Gabbard, other than her biography as a veteran and Congressman from Hawaii. I did hear “rumors” that somehow Gabbard was a “Putin ally,” but I didn’t have any direct evidence of that: until last night.
Listening to Gabbard create a narrative of “regime change” in Syria sounded much like Russian talking points during the Obama Administration. She made it sound like President Obama sent troops to back the rebellion against Assad, and re-wrote the rebels as all terrorists. They weren’t, and the facts are that President Obama didn’t send US troops to back them. Gabbard doesn’t get to re-write history to fit her own narrative, and her attempt to do so raises questions about where she’s coming from.
“Modern” Andrew Yang
I learned something last night. Somewhere along the way, I missed the “FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.” That’s what I get for being sixty-three and retired, I guess. I missed a whole REVOLUTION. But I do know about industrial automation. Gee, Hillary Clinton got in trouble for talking about that four years ago in West Virginia. She said that the coal mining jobs were gone, even if mines were re-opened. Clinton was criticized for saying the day of the coal miner working the open seam was over, machinery would take his place.
So this new idea by Mr. Yang really isn’t that new. And if automation displacement was the major answer to industrial unemployment, then why are all of those factories opening in Mexico and China and other places? GM can automate their plants, but it looks to me like they are more interested in using manual labor, and taking bigger profits. Not a revolution, just a corporation trying to increase stock values. Mr. Yang shouldn’t miss the point; automation is only a small part of the industrial and employment dislocation happening here in America.
But I can also see Mr. Yang’s appeal to younger voters. He speaks “the language” of the “internet educated electorate” (like that phrase?) He legitimately made fun of Senator Grassley’s questioning of Mark Zuckerberg, demonstrating a lack of “Facebook expertise.” That joke cut against some of the other candidates: too old to understand “Tweets.” Yang has a lot to add to the debate, pushing Democrats to deal with more modern social communications. But he’s not going to be the nominee.
Healthcare in Common
Democrats all want healthcare for all. Senators Sanders and Warren want to move America to Medicare for All. It’s a great idea, and if there were historical do-overs, it’s exactly what America should have done in the 1930’s and 40’s. But we didn’t.
A man not on the stage last night was Congressman Tim Ryan. He makes an important point: we need to recognize that many Americans are satisfied with their current insurance plans. Labor unions have often negotiated great health care for members, and given away other benefits to get it. Those union members aren’t willing to give that away, especially when they aren’t guaranteed to get back the other benefits.
On the other hand, there’s a majority of Americans who aren’t in unions. The millennial generation isn’t unionized, and they are looking for a better way to get health insurance. So we are in a transition period.
Transition and “do-over” isn’t the same thing. This means that while the Sanders/Warren plans of Medicare for All may be the ultimate goal, how the United States gets there, how long it takes, and who has to sacrifice now to get it; all need to be considered. Booker, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Biden are all offering a longer transition period with expanded public options.
Democrats have to look at electing a President as well as choosing a nominee. Whether that can be done with the “big ideas, big goals” of the Warren/Sanders wing, or more moderate candidates is unclear. What is clear is that primary voters are often the most motivated, and Sanders/Warren are strongly connecting with them.
Klobuchar’s Best
Senator Amy Klobuchar made a strong case for staying in the race. She positioned herself as the moderate who could draw independent and Republican voters, and implied that the Warren/Sanders candidacies risk losing that middle ground.
This was her best debate, showing strength and emotion. The question is, will the Democratic primary electorate be interested in anyone near the middle besides Biden? Klobuchar is betting that they will, but so far, Biden’s nailed down the center.
Joe is Joe
We loved Joe Biden as Vice President. He is inexorably linked to Barack Obama, and that makes him a politically powerful force in the 2020 election. Who can forget the “hot mike” whispered comment to the President about the passing the Affordable Care Act, “…this is a big f**king deal!!” It was, and we loved it.
But there is a reason why this is Biden’s third Presidential campaign.
When Biden speaks in the debate, it always seems to be halting, correcting, and to fade away. It would be easy to blame old age for that, using it as a reason to say that Biden is too old for the job. But Biden did that when he ran for President in 1988, and he did it again when he ran in 2008. It isn’t old age; it’s Joe. Like that or not, that’s who he has always been.
The Next Cut
The next debate will be on November 20th in Atlanta. The qualifications are tougher: higher polling numbers and more individual donations are required. Eight candidates have already made the cut: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Steyer, and Yang.
There are candidates, notably Tim Ryan and Steve Bullock, who are still campaigning despite not making the stage in Westerville. It’s not likely that they will get to Atlanta either. And who else will miss the cut?
Tulsi Gabbard may well be the next left off the list. She seems far from the mainstream of the Democratic electorate. But the real question revolves around Beto O’Rourke and Amy Klobuchar. If they could get on the stage in Atlanta, then they can probably survive, at least to Iowa. But if they fail, then it might well mean the end of their campaigns.
As I write this, the news came in that Congressman Elijah Cummings of Maryland has died. He has been a “rock” in the current political crisis, and a leader for decades. The United States will miss his strength, especially at this critical time. A hero is gone.
The debates focus too much on specific ideas, and not enough on character. Why be overly concerned about one candidate’s ideas, when it’s going to take hundreds of votes to pass a law?
We need to try to understand the candidates’ character and basic aptitudes – their ethics, judgment, communication ability, for example. It’s not easy. But unless they have ideas that are so extreme as to be untenable, their character is all that counts.
With regard to Elijah Cummings, he would be my candidate for President had his health not failed. He spoke with “gravitas”. You just knew he always spoke the truth. He had “down home” wisdom, common sense, a nose for reality, an even temperment. In a competition with Trump, he would be a rock of Gibraltar fighting a fierce storm. That rock has faced many storms, and is still there.