To the Wolves
Why did President Trump, unilaterally, throw the Syrian Kurds to the Turkish “wolves”? What advantage did he, or the United States, gain by allowing our long-term ally to get attacked by the second largest military force in NATO?
The President will tell you that he simply is “keeping his promise” to the American people. He says that this is just ending another “endless” war. By withdrawing the few hundred American soldiers left, he ended US involvement easily. He ordered them loaded up on trucks to head north to the Turkish border.
My “Resistance” friends will tell you that this is all about the Trump Tower – Istanbul. They say that the Trump Organization has money to be made in Turkey, and that now President Erdogan “owes” Mr. Trump. Expect a big expansion soon. They will add that the Turkish invasion plays into the hands of Russia, by ending the last resistance to Assad’s control of Syria. The “Resistance” will tell you that while Erdogan made the call, it was Putin pulling the strings.
An Ultimatum
All this is posited on the premise that the United States is working from a position of strength. But what if Erdogan recognized that even if the US has the most powerful military in the world, Trump has made it clear that he won’t use it. What if Saturday’s phone call wasn’t about Trump Tower, or Turkey’s ability to stabilize the Middle East.
The Turkish call may well have been from a more powerful position. Erodgan may simply have said we are invading Syria, we are ending the Syrian Kurd Army, and your few troops either need to get out of the way or risk death. Erdogan may not have been making a “request” but rather, issuing an ultimatum.
The speed and scope of the Turkish invasion has been planned for months. The US troops must have seen the smoke and destruction in their rearview mirrors. It seems obvious that the Turks were invading, Wednesday was D-Day, and the phone call was a “courtesy” to the President, not asking permission.
The few US troops in Northern Syria served as a “trip-wire.” The Turkish forces know full well that US casualties change everything and a world picture of two NATO allies battling each other terrifies everyone. It also plays straight into Vladimir Putin’s hands. The President of the United States may well have been given a choice: run or fight.
It must be incredibly awkward at Incirlik Airbase in Turkey this week. This is where US Forces flew air support against ISIS. Now, the Turkish Air Force may well be flying combat operations against the Syrian Kurds from the same runways. By the way, at least fifty US nuclear warheads are stored there.
Sanctions
President Trump threatens Turkey with economic sanctions. It seems so, helpless, so weak: after pulling the representatives of the might of the most powerful military in the world out of the way. And what about the American supplied Turkish Army and Air Force? Well, the Turks are already turning to Russia for military hardware; perhaps the US is “buying” their loyalty back by giving them the Kurds.
And certainly the world can recognize that Mr. Trump is weakened. The Mueller Report, the Ukraine call, impeachment investigations, and the looming 2020 election; all show Trump as possibly a short timer in the White House.
I’m no “hawk.” I grew up in the Vietnam era; I know what it’s like for Americans to fight a war without cause, and seemingly without end. But I also know that the President has sent a message to the world:
“Let the word go forth, the United States will bear little cost, suffer no burden, to stand by our allies. Stand with us today, but don’t depend on us tomorrow. When it gets tough, we’ll be gone.”
Trump was pushed around by Erdogan. The United States was threatened by Turkey. That’s the “powerful America” that Mr. Trump created, and that will be another of his legacies to be fixed.
