Kurdistan
There are 8.5 million Kurds in the Middle East, living in a region that stretches from the mountains of Turkey across Iraq and into Iran, and dips south into Syria. They are mostly Islamic, but there are Christian Kurds, Yazidi Kurds, and Zoroastrian Kurds. They call it Kurdistan, but when the Allies divided up the Middle East after World War I, pressure from the new Turkish government prevented their unification. The Kurds were split, and remain divided today.
They are the largest minority group in four nations. The Turks see them as terrorists, as the Kurds in the Turkish mountains have long pressed for independence. This includes a guerilla war that began in 1978, as Kurds fought to maintain their language and customs banned by the Turkish government.
In Iraq, Saddam Hussein repressed the Kurds. Prior to the US invasion, the Iraqi Government even resorted to nerve gas to control the northern Kurdish region. It should be no surprise then that the Kurds in Iraq welcomed the US invasion, and allied themselves with the American forces.
The Syrian Government of Bashar Assad also repressed Kurds. When the “Arab Spring” led to a nationwide rebellion against Assad, the Kurds joined in against the government.
So in the Middle East, Kurds are disliked by Iraqis, seen as terrorists by Turks, and viewed as rebels by Syrians.
Stand with the United States
When the US occupation of Iraq began to fail, and ISIS made huge territorial gains in both Iraq and Syria, the Iraqi Army proved ineffective. 34000 Iraqi soldiers were killed, and they were consistently defeated. They were riddled with ISIS infiltrators.
It was the Iraqi Kurds who stood with the US forces, fighting ISIS. It was the Iraqi and Syrian Kurds who spilled the most blood defeating ISIS in Syria. In defeating ISIS, the United States lost 71 soldiers. The Iraqi Kurds lost 1500. The Syrian Kurds lost over 11,000.
Over 80000 ISIS members were killed.
ISIS recruits foreign fighters from throughout the world. The path most take is through the Istanbul Airport, across the Turkish/Syrian border, and into the battle. After the general defeat of ISIS, the US and Syrian Kurds established border control to prevent more ISIS recruits from trying to join.
ISIS Still Remains
The Syrian Kurds also took charge of the over 10000 ISIS prisoners held in Syria. It’s not just the fighters; the camps include their wives and children. The Kurds are doing the job that no one else in the world wants to do: hold prisoner those ISIS members who are irrevocably dedicated to their cause. There is no “term,” no “parole” that will stop them from returning to battle. Their choices are: prison, enemy fighter, or death.
There are 1000 United States soldiers in Syria today. They are working jointly with the Syrian Kurds, but there real effect is to keep Turkey from invading northern Syria. Turkey sees the Kurds, not ISIS, as the ultimate threat to their nation. President Erdogan waits only for the end of US involvement, to move into the area and “cleanse” it of Kurds.
Transactional Friends
In every conversation with President Trump, Erdogan presses for the removal of US troops from Syria. He makes a strong case about the “safety” of Turkey, and how the Syrian Kurds are just like his own internal Turkish Kurds, terrorists. In the past, after most of these conversations, the senior members of the Trump Administration convinced the President of the usefulness of the US alliance with the Syrian Kurds.
But those senior advisors are gone. General Mattis resigned after Trump’s last aborted decision to abandon the Kurds. Mattis understood the obligation of sacrifice we owed, he wouldn’t abandon an ally on the field of battle. Even John Bolton, a man who never saw a war he didn’t like, saw the utility of protecting the Kurds from Turkey.
But now there is no one left to explain obligation, or long-term policy, to the President. All that’s left is the short-term profit, transactional relationships that Mr. Trump understands from his prior life. To him, it’s just business: the Kurds were useful against ISIS, but ISIS isn’t now a threat, and there’s value to gain from Turkey. Erdogan is purchasing weapons from Russia instead of the US, and there’s a Trump project in Istanbul (Newsweek) to conclude. So, dump the Kurds, and back the Turks.
ISIS Returns
ISIS will be a threat again. If the Syrian Kurds have to choose between guarding ISIS prisoners or defending themselves against the Turks, then the prisoners will be released. If 10000 ISIS fighters are freed, they will return to their cause, and the world will have to fight that battle all over again.
The world will see Turkey massacre the Syrian Kurds. They will see America abandon an ally for short-term gain. They will understand that the United States cannot be trusted.
And they will be right.
