The Vice President Effect

Agnew

Spiro Agnew, the Vice President of the United States resigned in disgrace. The former Governor of Maryland and Executive of Baltimore, he took bribes in each of his public offices.  The payments didn’t end when he moved into the White House; a man arrived once a month with a white envelope stuffed with cash.

It was October of 1973.  Nixon was trying to scratch and claw his way out of the Watergate scandal.  It must have been some relief to him for the spotlight to leave his Presidency. For just a moment, the glare was off him, even if it was on his own Vice President.

With Agnew gone, Democratic Speaker of the House Carl Albert was next in line for the Presidency.  But unlike any of his predecessors, Nixon had the opportunity to pick a new Vice President. The Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the Constitution, was ratified in 1967, in response to the assassination of President Kennedy. It allowed the President to fill a vacancy in the Vice Presidency, with two-thirds vote confirmation from the House and the Senate.

Nixon’s Pick

Nixon, with the shadow of possible impeachment darkening the White House, got to choose the next Vice President.  He passed over the obvious strong Republican candidates, Nelson Rockefeller, Barry Goldwater, or Ronald Reagan.  Instead he chose a Congressman from Grand Rapids, Michigan, the House Minority Leader, Gerald Ford.

Why pick Jerry Ford?  Ford was a standout football player at Michigan, who turned down offers to go pro.  Instead, he became an Assistant Coach at Yale, and enrolled in the Law School there.  He graduated with a law degree and entered the Navy in World War II. After the war he returned to his hometown Grand Rapids to run for Congress.

Nixon knew that Ford would easily pass the two-thirds requirement in the House and Senate.  Ford wasn’t seen as a political obstacle for Republicans who wanted to run for President in 1976.  He would be a “place-holder” throughout the rest of the Nixon Administration.

He was a conservative Congressman, at the time known best for demanding the impeachment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Earl Warren because of his liberal leanings.  President Lyndon Johnson summed up the general view of Ford:  “He’s a nice guy but he played too much football with his helmet off.”

And Nixon also knew that Ford was regarded by many as a “light-weight;” a man both parties in Congress would consider not qualified for the Presidency.  Ford was Nixon’s “trump card:” impeach and remove Nixon, and you get Ford.

It didn’t work.   The audiotapes showed Nixon planning and executing the Watergate cover-up were released under Supreme Court order. Congress had the smoking gun to remove him from the Presidency.  To avoid impeachment, and the loss of his retirement income, Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford became the 38^th President of the United States.

Pence

Mike Pence has similarities to President Ford.  He too is from small town Columbus, Indiana, and graduated from Hanover College and Indiana University Law School.  Mike Pence was a radio and television talk show host who, after two unsuccessful bids, was elected to the US Congress.  He then served as a conservative Governor of Indiana, and considered a run for the Presidency in 2016.

Pence’s selection for Trump’s Vice President put a “mainstream” conservative Republican and devout Christian on the ticket.  It was just what Trump needed to contrast to his own cosmopolitan background.   But now, to Republicans concerned about impeachment by Trump’s extorting campaign information from the President of Ukraine, Pence might offer some welcome relief.

Trump’s Plan

The White House is executing a strategy to counter that possibility.  We already knew that Vice President Pence met with the President of Ukraine soon after Trump’s fateful phone conversation where he asked for information about the Biden’s.  We also know that Pence explicitly tied US military aid funding to “cleaning up corruption.”

But now the White House has leaked that a Pence aide was on the phone with Trump during the conversation, and that the “summary transcript” of the conversation went into Pence’s briefing materials before his meeting.  Pence knew, or should have known, that Trump demanded information on Biden.  That means that Pence was the one who made the “quid pro quo” offer for that information out in the open.

The White House has tied Pence into the scandal.  Their strategy seems to be, if Congress were going to impeach Trump, then they would have to impeach Pence as well.

A Bridge Too Far

The Democratic House of Representatives may be faced with multiple candidates for impeachment.  The President, the Vice President, the Secretary of State, and the Attorney General:  all seem up to their necks in abusing the powers of their office.  But if the Democratic House were to impeach ALL of them, then President Trump could convince his base that it’s a “coup d’état” with the Democrats trying to throw out the entire Administration.  

But it’s not just his base that would be influenced.  The Republican controlled US Senate actually decides whether the President, or the others should be removed from office.  If all of the Democrats and Independents there vote for removal, it would still take twenty Republican Senators to join in.  

And President Trump would tell them:  remove me and you must remove Mike Pence.  Remove the President and Vice President, and the Speaker of the House becomes the President of the United States.

It’s even better than Nixon’s strategy.  If Trump and Pence are a package, removing them makes Democrat Nancy Pelosi the President of the United States.   Regardless of what Trump and Pence have done, that would be a “bridge too far” for Republican Senators.  

Trump will bind himself to Pence, making sure they share the same fate.  Then he will dare the House Democrats to impeach them both.