Where We Stand

White House Facts

It’s pretty clear.  The President wanted an investigation of Joe Biden and his son.  He wanted it badly enough, that he was willing to withhold funds from Ukraine, funds that were desperately needed to fend off Russian advances in the ongoing war. 

It isn’t clear what the Ukraine was willing to do, but whatever they decided, who could blame them.  They are between a literal rock, Russia, and a hard place, Trump.  Even though they’ve investigated Biden and found nothing, they certainly would do so again to survive.  And this time, they’ll find something.  It’s what Trump wanted.

The evidence is plain, and provided by the White House.  We have a “summary” of his conversation with President Zelensky, and we have the “Whistleblower’s Complaint,” also provided by them.  If this is the stuff they willingly provided, how bad must the actual transcript be?

He Can’t Refuse

The President of the United States got on the phone with a foreign leader and asked for a favor.  The favor was to get dirt on his enemies, to help him politically in the next election.  The “quid pro quo” was the money for Ukrainian defense, money already approved by the United States Congress.

He’s asked for favors before.  Remember that first call to the President of Mexico, when Trump begged for him to pay for “THE WALL?”  The difference there, at least to our knowledge, wasn’t there wasn’t the offer of a quid pro quo, he wasn’t dangling the money of the government of the United States. He was trying to fulfill an ill conceived campaign promise, not get outside help to trash an opponent. 

But there was Trump, talking to Zelensky, making “…an offer he can’t refuse.”  It would make the plot for a great comedy on Netflixs if it wasn’t true, sort of the Sopranos meets Vice.

Smoke and Mirrors

Don’t get lost in the smoke.  There’s already a lot of it out there.  Giuliani is trying to “flip the script,” claiming he’s he “real whistleblower.”  His fantasy:  that Biden intervened to protect his son, that the 2016 election interference was from Ukraine, not Russia, that Hillary Clinton’s email server is somewhere in Kyiv, and Ukraine was working for Clinton, not Russia for Trump.  

Of course, the Mueller Report states the opposite.  But the “big lie” theory of the Trump campaign continues with Giuliani at the lead:  the bigger the lie, the better.  And half of Fox News is backing the play, with Hannity and Carlson, and particularly the “Giuliani whisperer,” Ingraham, all chiming in.  Oddly the other half, Chris Wallace and Shep Smith, are calling out their comrades in “Foxiness.”  They obviously can’t stomach the lies.

Even the “above the fray” Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has a hand in this.  He ordered another investigation of the Clinton emails, this time threatening anyone who emailed Clinton on her private server from the State Department. The Department is finding them “culpable” for sending classified emails to a private server. Those emails weren’t classified until long after the fact of their delivery, but that doesn’t matter to Pompeo.

For the personnel involved, it may mean a tough time renewing security clearances.  But the real purpose is to stir more mud up for 2020.  If they can’t chant “lock him up” then back to the old favorite, “lock her up.”

Pelosi’s Plan

Speaker Pelosi’s strategy is clear.  Put a simple, one part impeachment article on the floor of the House of Representatives. There is so much, Russia, taxes, emoluments:  but this is the one clear act; extortion, withholding the money, and hiding the evidence.  It’s simple, it’s easy to understand, and it’s immediate.   There is already a majority in the House ready to vote for it; they are waiting for the process of “educating the American people.”

Educating the American people is really a political term.  By taking the time and effort to hold hearings, listen to testimony and present evidence, the House hopes to win support from citizens, who will then hold their Senators accountable.

Senate Math

Actual impeachment is bringing charges against, in this case, the President of the United States.  It is the US Senate with the power to adjudicate those charges.  The President can be removed and barred from running for office by two-thirds majority vote, sixty-seven Senators.  

There are forty-seven Democrats (with two independents) and fifty-three Republicans.  Assuming all forty-seven Democrats would vote to remove the President, including Joe Manchin from West Virginia; it would take twenty Republicans to convict.

It seems an impossible task, convincing twenty Republicans Senators to vote against President Trump.  And it may well be.  But former Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona let out the “dirty little secret” of the Senate Republican caucus. Flake estimates that thirty-five of the fifty-three would vote to remove the President, except for the political ramifications. 

The greatest fear for most Republican US Senators is a primary challenge from the right.  Primary voters are dominated by the extremes of the Party, in the GOP, by Trump supporters.  Twenty-one Republican Senate seats are up in 2020.  Ten of those seats are considered “at risk,” vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger.  But all of those seats would be open to a primary challenge from the right, if they supported removing the President.  

Profiles in Courage

If the House presents a compelling case for removal to the American people, the Senators are left with a difficult choice.  They could vote their conscience, as we know from Jeff Flake they actually have.  Senators could vote to remove a President who is running US foreign policy like an unprofessional Mafia don.  

They could do so, and risk the fallout of a primary challenge from the right, backed with the full Twitter power of the (disgraced) President and his allies.  

Or they could choose political expediency, and stand with Trump. But that creates a problem too, at least for the ten at most risk.  If the American people recognize their lack of political courage, will they be able to win a general election and keep their seat?  

Courage or Expediency:  they must pick their poison.