Civil War
Yemen has been at war for four years. The civil war broke out in 2015 against the government led by former Field Marshal, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. The leading opponent in the struggle is the insurgent Houthi force. The Houthis control the eastern part of the nation, including the capital at Sana’a. Hadi’s forces control much of the rest of the nation.
In addition to the government forces and the Houthi, Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula and even ISIS has some territory in the region. And a third breakaway group, the Southern Transitional Council, controls the main port at Aden.
Yemen borders Saudi Arabia and Oman, and has a critical geographic position at the junction of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, leading to the Indian Ocean. The geography alone makes Yemen of world interest, but the addition of both Al Qaeda and ISIS earned the attention of the United States. US Special Forces operate against the terrorists groups, and the US has a significant drone assassination program in the region.
Proxy War
Saudi Arabia has actively taken the side of the government forces, including launching air attacks and putting troops in the country. The United States is providing logistical and intelligence support. Iran is supporting the Houthi side. If it sounds like a mess, it is. Over 10 million civilians are caught in the middle of this conflict. According to the organization Save the Children, a thousand children are dying each week from preventable diseases. Over 90,000 combatants have been killed.
The war is in part a “proxy” fight between the two largest Islamic nations in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Iran are both heavily invested in their sides. And like most “proxy wars” the attacks have spilled over to direct action against each other. The most recent drone and missile attack on two Saudi oil refineries, puts them into direct conflict. US intelligence believes that they were originated and controlled by the Iranian government.
The loss of oil production is causing a spike in world oil prices; to say that the problem is between Saudi Arabia and Iran is naïve. Conflict in the Middle East always impacts the entire globe; and Europe and the United States are particularly affected.
US in the Middle East
The United States historically has been willing to use military force to protect oil resources. The Persian Gulf War in 1991 was characterized as protecting Kuwait from Iraqi invasion, but Iraq’s control of Kuwaiti oil resources and proximity to the Saudi oil fields was the critical factor. The US drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait, but in 1991 stopped short of invading Iraq.
In 2003 the United States invaded Iraq and removed Saddam Hussein, the dictator of the country. With Hussein’s dictatorial regime removed, Iraq fell into sectional conflicts. The US then spent the next years trying to establish internal control, finally withdrawing most troops by 2011. Some US forces returned in 2014 to combat ISIS.
President Trump is closely aligned with the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Pompeo is there today, consulting with Mohammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince of the nation. We have backed the Saudis in Yemen, and ignored human rights violations there. In addition, we ignored the Saudi’s brutal assassination and dismemberment of a Washington Post columnist in Istanbul.
President Trump is also closely allied with the embattled Prime Minister of Israel, Netanyahu, who sees Iran as the existential threat to Israel’s existence.
And President Trump himself is in a continual struggle with Iran. When he was elected, Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Agreement controlling Iranian nuclear development, and reinstated harsh economic sanctions on the country. Just last month the Iranians shot down a US drone, and the US responded with a crippling cyber-attack.
Saudi-Iranian War
The United States is NOT in a joint-defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, and we are no longer dependent on Saudi oil to directly supply American needs. But the President has close contacts with the Saudi royal family, and consistently praises their actions.
It won’t be a surprise if the Saudis respond to the oil refinery attacks with direct strikes at Iran itself. And should Iran respond to those attacks, it also shouldn’t be a surprise if the United States unilaterally stands with Saudi Arabia.
But after three wars in the region (Persian Gulf, Iraq and ISIS) and the eighteen-year struggle in Afghanistan, the US should be very careful about starting a direct war with the largest military force in the Middle East, Iran. The US cannot depend on NATO or the European Union to join in, and is looking at an opponent better armed and organized than Afghanistan or Iraq.
In short, a war with Iran would be an ugly, deadly, and many-year conflict. The United States still has a choice, but the deciding moment is coming soon.
