Three Way Handshake

Unbeknownst to almost everyone, the major Taliban leaders and, separately, the President of Afghanistan, were going to secretly meet with me at Camp David on Sunday. They were coming to the United States tonight. Unfortunately, in order to build false leverage, they admitted to an attack in Kabul that killed one of our great great soldiers, and 11 other people. I immediately cancelled the meeting and called off peace negotiations. What kind of people would kill so many in order to seemingly strengthen their bargaining position? They didn’t, they only made it worse! If they cannot agree to a ceasefire during these very important peace talks, and would even kill 12 innocent people, then they probably don’t have the power to negotiate a meaningful agreement anyway. How many more decades are they willing to fight? – Donald J. Trump Tweet – 9/7/19

Yesterday, President Trump tweeted that he was cancelling a secret meeting at Camp David.  The meeting was kept secret because it was supposed to include the President of the United States, the President of Afghanistan, and leadership from their opponent in the Afghan War for eighteen years, the Taliban.

The Eighteen-Year War

The American envoy to negotiations with the Taliban recently announced the framework for an agreement, allowing US troops to withdraw from the longest war in American history over the next eighteen months (to read the Trump World essay about the negotiations and an outline of the framework, link here: “Deal with the Taliban”.)  The core of the deal was that the US would leave, and, the Taliban would negotiate with the Afghan government.

The current Afghan government sees the Taliban as an existential threat to modern Afghanistan. The Taliban ruled there from 1994 until the US invasion in 2001.  They enforced a strict form of historic Islamic control, Sharia law that in many ways put the country into the eighth century.  Women had no rights; freedom of speech, or even thought was banned or controlled.

The Taliban are making it clear that they are negotiating from strength.  They have launched a series of suicide bombings in Afghanistan. This week, a US soldier was among the victims in an attack.  

Negotiating from Strength

President Trump claims that as his excuse for cancelling the Camp David meetings.  It seems that the President was hoping for a breakthrough there, perhaps emulating the famous “Camp David Accord” negotiated by President Jimmy Carter between archenemies Begin of Israel and Sadat of Egypt.

But then the last attack occurred, another American was killed and the President said, it was enough. 

At least, that’s what he said in his tweet.  His Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, is doubling down on the President’s reasoning on the Sunday morning news shows.  But there is a real question about what happened with the Camp David meeting.

Did the President cancel the meetings, or did one of the participants refuse to attend?  Did the US recognize that the Taliban weren’t negotiated in good faith, or did the US realize that the strength of the Taliban was so much greater than the US, that they had no reason to negotiate.

The facts are:  the United States is going to withdraw from Afghanistan.  After eighteen years of war, the US Government, military, and the American people, don’t have the will to maintain the long-term stalemate we have achieved. We know it, the Afghan government knows it, and most importantly, the Taliban know it.

And besides, the President announced that’s what he wanted to do.  That was from the candidate who ran for office claiming that you never give away your goal in negotiations, never tell “the other side” what you really want or will take.

Winning the War

The Taliban have proven they are willing to accept a seemingly unlimited amount of pain and suffering to end the US presence.  Like the Communists in Vietnam in the late 1960’s, they are willing to continue to fight, and wait for the US to come to their terms.

And Trump faces difficult pressures.  He desperately needs a foreign policy “victory.”  His diplomacy has failed:  in China, North Korea, Europe, and the Middle East.  The President promised his voters he would get the US out of Afghanistan. With the election of 2020 looming, he needs to accomplish something, anything, and soon.

But he also faces pressure from the more traditional conservative Republicans, who are unwilling to leave the American mission in Afghanistan.  American casualties reinforce their view that we should not negotiate with the Taliban.  They are still looking for a military miracle to end the Afghanistan War in victory.

So Trump lost his chance for a “Trumpian Camp David Accord;” no three-way handshake.  The surprise is that the President felt the need to tweet out a “secret” meeting.  It’s more likely, he was getting the “first word” in before one of the other participants backed out.

And in the final analysis, President Trump should know the answer to his question: How many more decades are they willing to fight?  It’s simple, they are willing to fight longer than the United States.