Armored vehicles line up on the border. The “special relationship” between China and the city of Hong Kong seems on the verge of destruction. The rest of the world, including the United States, has said little about it, helpless to even protest against possible Chinese actions. The memory of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when tanks rolled over thousands of protesting students in Beijing, is clear.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong, smaller than Los Angeles but with more than twice the population, is one of the major trading centers in the world. A British colony until 1997, the United Kingdom ceded the city back to China under very specific terms. Hong Kong was to maintain a democratic government, a separate capitalist economy including its own currency, and a legal system based in English Common Law.
That special relationship has benefitted China as well. A big part of Chinese modernization into the world economy has been through the window of Hong Kong’s capitalism. Hong Kong itself is one of the top-ten import/export nations in the world.
Over the twenty-two years since Hong Kong became part of China, the Beijing government has quietly inserted itself into the Hong Kong government. The Chinese government appoints Hong Kong’s Chief Executive. This executive controls the courts, as well as the ability to veto laws and dissolve the elected legislature.
Democracy Threatened
The current crisis began when Chief Executive Carrie Lam proposed a law allowing the Chinese Government to assume judicial jurisdiction of some Hong Kong cases. Those accused of “political” crimes would no longer be tried under Hong Kong law, but could be transferred to Mainland China for trial and punishment.
The young people of Hong Kong began protests in the streets, demanding that the proposal be withdrawn. After weeks of marches, Lam delayed the proposal but refused to completely withdraw it, and the protests grew more intense. Police and protestors battled in the streets, and armed “provocateurs” sponsored by the Chinese government attacked protestors and created riots. Hong Kong’s international airport, eighth busiest in the world, was closed for two days.
The Chinese induced riots create a pretext for direct Beijing intervention in Hong Kong and threatens the “special relationship” as well as the personal and political freedoms of the City.
So what’s the “downside” of Chinese military action in Hong Kong? The world seems willing to stand on the sideline. The power of the Chinese economy over world trade and financial markets has silenced Europe, and particularly the United Kingdom. The United States has said little as well. There is nothing to stop China from acting.
Tough Business
President Trump treats the threat to Hong Kong as an “internal Chinese matter.” He tweeted (the official form of Presidential communication):
I know President Xi of China very well. He is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people. He is also a good man in a “tough business.” I have ZERO doubt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem, he can do it. Personal meeting? Trump – 8/14/19
The “great leader” and “good man” is in a “tough business”. Will President Xi take the “tough business” comment as permission to actually be “tough” and roll tanks into the streets of Hong Kong? And would a personal meeting with President Trump simply grant him even more latitude to deal with Hong Kong?
The Trump Administration is ingnoring the strong stand for democracy in Hong Kong. With Trump’s transactional form of foreign diplomacy, it may be that he is willing to trade Hong Kong for a better trade deal with China. The US is already faltering in that effort. Trump delayed raising tariffs on China so that the American people can get their “Christmas shopping” done.
Dealmaker
The US cages migrants on the Southern Border, and supports the leader of Saudi Arabia after he butchers a newspaper correspondent. The Trump Administration has made it clear that they are willing to accept almost any behavior if they can “make a deal”. We have a government policy without a moral compass, so “tough business” in Hong Kong probably won’t shake it.
Hong Kong’s democracy will be another pawn traded in the chess match of US world trade policy. The American people may soon be forced to stomach the picture of Hong Kong’s youth, demanding democracy, being crushed under Chinese armor.
It will be part of “the deal.”
