Nope – not talking about Epstein’s autopsy.
Failure Analysis
On March 11, 2013, the leadership of the Republican National Committee released their “autopsy” on the 2012 Presidential election. Incumbent Democrat Barack Obama soundly beat Republican Mitt Romney. At least, it was a sound beating in the Electoral College, with Obama getting 332 votes to Romney’s 206. The electoral outcome belied the closeness of the popular vote: Obama had 51.1% to Romney’s 47.2%, a mere five million votes more out of the 127 million cast.
The Republican Party had lost four of the last six Presidential elections, and the popular vote in five out of six.
- 1992 – Clinton over HW Bush
- 1996 – Clinton over Dole
- 2000 – W Bush over Gore* (Gore won the popular vote)
- 2004- -W Bush over Kerry
- 2008 – Obama over McCain
- 2012 – Obama over Romney
Regional Winners
But, Republicans were winning on the state level. The “Red Map” gerrymandering plan was effectively gaining control of more state legislatures. Thirty states had Republican governors. Congressional maps were altered to improve GOP chances in the House of Representatives, gaining and expanding their majority control. And the Republican “voter ID program” suppressed Democratic votes and impacted turnout, particularly in non-Presidential years.
But, on the national level, the Republican leadership felt their relevance slipping away. As the “autopsy” put it:
“Public perception of the Party is at record lows. Young voters are increasingly rolling their eyes at what the Party represents, and many minorities wrongly think that Republicans do not like them or want them in the country. When someone rolls their eyes at us, they are not likely to open their ears to us.” (Atlantic)
The Party of White Men
The “autopsy” recognized the Republicans must reach minorities, youth, and women to stay relevant in national races. Otherwise the party would have influence only on regional matters. They would become the Party of white men and demographically, a party doomed to fade away.
In 2013, the Republican leadership looked at the changing demographics of America, and agreed they needed to reach Latino communities. The report stated:
“If Hispanic Americans hear that the GOP doesn’t want them in the United States, they won’t pay attention to our next sentence. It doesn’t matter what we say about education, jobs or the economy; if Hispanics think that we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies. In essence, Hispanic voters tell us our Party’s position on immigration has become a litmus test, measuring whether we are meeting them with a welcome mat or a closed door.”(Atlantic)
The “Autopsy” also pointed out that the Republican Party needed to reach out to women.
“The RNC must improve its efforts to include female voters and promote women to leadership ranks within the committee. Additionally, when developing our Party’s message, women need to be part of this process to represent some of the unique concerns that female voters may have.” (Atlantic)
Golden Escalator
All of this was thrown out the window when Donald Trump came down the “golden escalator” and said about Mexican migrants; “…They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” (Time)
Or was it?
Yesterday I listened to Michael Steel, aide to former Republican Speaker Boehner. Steel worked for Jeb Bush in the 2016 Presidential campaign. He made it clear that the Republican Party was forced to choose in 2016: either to follow the “Autopsy” into the future, or cobble together the “old” coalition one more time.
Donald Trump forced that choice by bringing a powerful combination of racism, nationalism and star power to a primary packed with “policy wonks.” Bush, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Paul; all made their marks as serious men talking about serious issues. Trump blew them away with his disregard for policy, the truth, and social norms. It was the exact formula to gain mass appeal that the others couldn’t match.
It worked in the general election as well, with Hillary Clinton the archetypical “wonk:” perhaps she would make a great President, but she was a poor candidate.
But the longer course of history will run in favor of the “autopsy results.” The election in 2018 demonstrated the change: even in Republican Georgia with the full force of voter suppression in play, Democratic Governor candidate Stacy Abrams came within a couple of percent of winning. A Democrat won the Senate seat in Arizona. If that can happen in these “Red” states, then it foretells a dwindling future for the Republican Party.
Change or Fade
All of this doesn’t guarantee a Trump loss in 2020. Democrats will need to field a candidate who can reach beyond “policy wonk” to touch American lives. A successful nominee needs to bring more voters to the polls than Clinton did in 2016, knowing full well that Trump will maximize the “old white” vote, and may have the “hidden hand” of election meddling on his side. It is a critical election.
But in the longer term, Trump will fade. His “special mix” will be near impossible to replicate. Lindsey Graham, Mike Pence, Donald Junior: all may hope to inherit the mantle, but none of them seem to have the “super power” that Trump has with his base.
The 2012 “Autopsy” wasn’t wrong. The Republican Party will either change or stop being a national force. What Trump has managed to do, is delay the inevitable for four years.
Democrats: nominate a strong enough candidate to make sure it’s not eight.
