Here’s Sir Elton himself from 1971 – Madman Across the Water
Madman across the water
Almost two years ago, President Trump invoked Elton John songs by calling North Korea’s leader Kim “Rocket Man.” At the time, I wrote an essay on Trump World about the events around the North Korean crisis, titled Goodbye Yellow Brick Road. To give Mr. Trump some credit, North Korea hasn’t tested nuclear weapons since his “fire and fury” threat. However, after two summits there isn’t a hint of an agreement, and threats to the contrary, the United States is maintaining the policy of Clinton, Bush, and Obama. The US continues actions to keep North Korea in check by using China’s influence and US led economic sanctions, and pushes off any solution to the next Presidency. It’s worked so far.
captain fantastic or the brown dirt cowboy
To expand our Elton John analogy, President Trump is governing with the Madman Across the Water theory. In just the past few weeks, he threatened to:
- Launch an attack on Iran, bombs almost on the way, then stopped it;
- Roundup millions of undocumented aliens in the US and deport them, postponed the raids;
- Levy a tariff on Mexico unless they stopped migrants, then dropped it;
- accept campaign aid from foreign nations, including Russia, and then said he might call the FBI if it happened.
President Trump threatens, blusters, and scares Americans and the rest of the world. Foreign leaders don’t know what to think, even after the State Department quietly tells them to ignore the noise. Americans hear the same advice from Republican politicians, “don’t worry about what the President says; watch what he does.”
The United Kingdom and other allies are afraid to share intelligence information with the US because they don’t trust Trump. Seemingly, neither do the American intelligence agencies. They’ve prepared attacks on Russian network infrastructure without briefing the President, afraid that he would cancel the preparations, or tell the Russians.
The United States did respond to Iran’s attack on a drone. While there are few details available, US Cyber Command launched a serious attack on the Iranian network infrastructure, certainly a more proportional response than a bombing raid on the Iranian mainland. Attack US unmanned aircraft, and the response is to disrupt your computer networks; an “eye for an eye.”
When Trump backs off, John Bolton, the President’s National Security Advisor, continues as the “Madman”proxy. Bolton continues to rattle his “saber,” threatening military action. It’s a madman battle to the maddest.
I’m still standing
Threaten bombing and killing, then disrupt computer networks. Allies worry about Presidential security, then a US operation against Russia is leaked in the New York Times. Threaten Mexican and American citizens with a debilitating tariff, then claim victory for a deal already made before the threats. Keep everyone, friend and foe, off-balance and worried.
There are serious problems with Madman diplomacy, ones that the United States is just now experiencing. If Trump is going to be the Madman, sooner of later someone is going to call the bluff: is he really mad, or just a noisy and arrogant bully, something that fits Donald Trump’s entire life? And the question for all Americans is: if all of the bluff and bluster turns out to be hot air, what forces will be necessary to achieve American goals?
funeral for a friend
Unlike the past ninety years of American Presidents, Mr. Trump shows no interest in developing coalitions. The Allies of World War II; Truman’s grand plan of treaties with NATO, CENTO, and SEATO; Bush 41’s coalition to fight the Persian Gulf War; Bush 43’s coalition in Afghanistan; Obama’s signatories for the Iran Nuclear Deal: every President has determined that we need friends in the world to achieve our goals. Every President that is, except Donald Trump. His decision is that we are better in “one on one” situations, when our military and economic power “wins” every time.
It’s the Trump Doctrine; multi-lateral treaties and actions are out, bi-lateral interactions are in. The problem is, when the bluff is called, it will it be only American soldiers sent to fight, and only Americans bearing the burdens. In the current confrontation with Iran, our transactional partners, Israel and Saudi Arabia, are happy that the United States is rebalancing the Middle East in their favor. While they will likely allow their bases to be used as staging grounds, and the Saudis will kick-in a few billion petro dollars, it will be Americans who fight and die in an armed conflict with Iran.
I guess that’s why they call it the blues
The United States President has insulted our allies and complimented our enemies. We have bullied Mexico and Canada, and taken sides in the internal actions of the European Union. Under the current administration, to be a friend of the United States is to be threatened and harassed, under the guise, as Mr. Trump would say, of being “honest with our friends.”
Oh, but to be an enemy. North Korea’s Kim, treated with the upmost respect despite being a murderous dictator. Vladimir Putin is believed over our own intelligence agencies. President Xi of China is wined and dined; no word spoken of the anniversary of Tiananmen Square. The only “bad guys:” Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and of course, Angela Merckel and John McCain.
Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word
The Madman Theory is a short-term, transactional kind of solution. It doesn’t build an architecture of world interaction, it instead responds to each crisis as “stand alone.” Just because a nation is “our friend” today, doesn’t mean anything for tomorrow. We all know those kinds of folks, at work or in society. We know there is no loyalty, no trust to be found; only what benefits them. And when everything falls apart, they find themselves alone.
Let’s hope that’s not America’s fate.
