The Rise of Nationalism
“History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes” is a quote attributed to Mark Twain. While nothing in our story, the human story, is a carbon copy; the themes of our history come back again and again to influence our actions and establish our fate.
One world theme is the failure of “liberal” governance to deal with economic dislocation; the disparity between the increase in overall national wealth and the working and middle classes. As the gap widens and those workers see the “rest of the world” move onto a higher economic plane while they struggle for the basics of life; they search for alternatives to the current governing regime.
(Note –using “liberal” in this sense is not the same as “liberal/conservative” in current politics. Liberal governance is defined as: governing with the consent of the governed, and equality before the law; hardly a controversial definition.)
In the “Western World,” North America and Western Europe, “liberal” governance has been the norm since World War II. In fact, the War itself was a struggle between “liberal” governance and nationalism/authoritarianism. And here’s where the rhyming begins. The nationalist/authoritarians, better known as Fascists, came to power as a result economic dislocation, the Great Depression. Working and middle class people, desperate to survive, turned to “leaders” (in Germany the “Fuhrer”) with simple solutions and someone else to blame for their plight.
The end of World War II made the world “safe for democracy” once again. But now, seventy-four years later, we stand at the same threshold our forefathers faced in the late 1920’s. Fascism has a new guise, the rise of “nationalism.” It is clothed in seductive terms: “lets go back to the ‘good old days’ when things were simple.” But the “good old days” were good for only select groups. Our modern governments have, haltingly, worked to bring all groups the economic and legal benefits of our world.
The “select” groups are now faced with increasing economic hardships. They are being seduced with a variation on the same general theme used in the 1920’s: “there is not enough prosperity for all, sharing is costing YOU.” (If you don’t believe it, listen to the biggest argument against medical insurance for all in the United States: there isn’t enough for everyone and “I’ll lose MY doctor and have to wait in line!”)It worked in Italy and in Germany in the 1920’s, and it had its adherents in the United States in the 1930’s as well. It is the same playbook that Hitler and Mussolini used, rewritten by folks like Steve Bannon to appeal to a modern social media world.
Today it is displayed in phrases used by President Trump: “America is packed, it is closed, turn around and go home.” It is displayed in the ideology that sees the United States and Russia allied in a great “crusade” against the “Radical Muslim” world. It is underlined by the theme “Make America Great Again,” as if the extension of equal rights to minority religious, ethnic and social groups has somehow made America less, not more.
Donald Trump is not the cause of all of this. He is a symptom, a chameleon who tapped into a dark ideology to his own benefit. It has growing appeal, perhaps to the thirty so percent of Americans who would watch on Fifth Avenue as he shot someone.
But it’s not just in the US. The United Kingdom’s Brexit is a similar movement, with similar support. In the election for the European Parliament, the “Brexit” Party scored thirty-two percent of the vote. The “anti-Brexit” parties scored thirty-two percent as well, with the remaining thirty-six percent split among the parties who are themselves split about what to do. Other Nationalist parties in Europe didn’t do as well in the European elections as they expected, but they did gain twenty-five percent of the parliamentary seats, up from twenty.
Nationalist parties in France and Italy, in Austria and Hungary; all are making inroads.
Economics are the driving force behind all of this. That will be the ultimate test for the “liberal democracies.” Can they change the economic situation, allowing greater prosperity for all, or will they continue to allow the “one percent of the one percent” to prosper, while the rest remain stagnant. Will the alternatives to nationalism find a way to appeal to the “better angels” of our political nature, or will the seductive forces of separation and hate win out?
History is rhyming. We are at the point where the United States, and the world, can still make a choice between conflicting ideologies. We can learn from the past, or we can ignore it at our peril. We have seen all of this before, and we know where it ends.
