Democrats: Eyes on the Prize

Democrats: Eyes on the Prize

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has pushed the envelope for Democrats.  Whatever it means to be a Social-Democrat, Ocasio-Cortez has taken traditional Democratic values:  the struggle of the common worker, the protection of the environment, improving healthcare and education; and pushed the boundaries of what might be done.  She has raised the bar, and forced more moderate Democrats to deal with her issues.

And while many Democrats don’t agree with everything she proposes, most recognize that her aspirational results should be the goals of the party.  How we get to raise average worker’s pay, universal healthcare, fix climate change and low or no cost education; the devil is in the details and will need to be worked out.  But these issues will be the Democratic Party Platform.

Democrats cannot forget to keep their “eyes on the prize.”  The immediate goal is to rid the government of Donald J. Trump, and begin to repair the damage that his four years in office has done.  If this isn’t accomplished, then all of the other goals are for naught; if it is accomplished, the United States can begin to move to a better future.

Eyes on the prize:  defeat Donald Trump in 2020.  

Which brings us to the biggest threat to defeating Donald Trump in 2020:  Bernie Sanders.  The Independent Senator from Vermont, who registers as a Democrat for the purpose of running for President, is leading the polls of avowed candidates for the Democratic nomination (Joe Biden has yet to enter the race.)  Senator Sanders is the best known of the gaggle of Democrats in the race, having run for the nomination in 2016 and earning 13,206,428 votes.  He lost to Hillary Clinton, who gained 16,914,722 votes.  

Sanders and his followers hold a grudge from 2016, where they felt that machinery of the Party were stacked against him (and it was, right or wrong.)   His lukewarm support for Hillary Clinton in the general election didn’t help enough in her razor thin loss to Trump.  

He leads the polls now, nine months before the first caucuses in Iowa.  But neither Hillary Clinton in 2016, nor candidates today, have made negative comments about the socialist from Vermont.  Senator Sanders has never been faced with an “attack” campaign. Candidates have not raised questions about his taxes either, though Sanders didn’t release them in 2016 (except for a 2014 summary) and hasn’t done so through today (though he does claim that he will release ten years worth on “tax day.”) This despite the growing power struggle in the Washington, as the Treasury Department defies the law by refusing to turn over the Trump tax documents to the House Ways and Means Committee.

In addition, the 2016 Sanders campaign paid women less than men for the same jobs, and had campaign operatives who worked with Paul Manafort in Ukrainian politics before joining the Sanders campaign.  But these flaws aren’t mentioned by his opponents, and neither are the vast promises Sanders has made, without a clear plan to pay for them.

So, why does Bernie still get a pass?

Senator Sanders looms as a threat to the Democratic Party, not only as a winning nominee, but also as a bitter loser.  If his supporters decide (as many did in 2016) that he wasn’t treated fairly, they may vote for a third party, or simply sit out the 2020 election.  Or even worse, Bernie could decide to run as a Socialist candidate, a third party on the left that would doom the Democratic Party candidate to a loss and guarantee a second Trump term.

Those conditions held Hillary in check in 2016, and Democrats recognize them today as well. So Sanders is coddled, without direct challenge, even though there are big differences between him and most of the other primary candidates on many issues.  But if Sanders were to be the Party nominee, he certainly wouldn’t be coddled by the Republicans.  

A Sander’s candidacy and the likely Republican smear campaign would drive moderate voters to either choose not to vote, or hold their nose and re-elect President Trump. Of all the candidates running for the Democratic nomination, the election path for Sanders is the least probable.  He fails to win the “middle” of the political spectrum.

Sander’s supporters argue a novel path to the Presidency.  They prophesize a millennial outpouring of support that completely changes the electorate by creating an entirely new voting population.  But Sanders still is weak among key Democratic constituencies, including African-American and Hispanic minorities. And the millennial outpouring is still only prophecy, the “Bernie Bros” haven’t shown their voting strength yet, if it exists at all.

Bernie Sanders has the least probable path to defeating Donald Trump. He is a polarizing force, unable to capture the “middle vote” that was so important in the 2018 Congressional victories. He is vulnerable to a negative campaign, one that he is yet to experience. Democrats: whether you agree with AOC’s plan, or fall in with the more moderate plans of Amy Klobuchar or Joe Biden; nothing gets done until Trump is defeated. Keep your eyes on the prize.