Trump 2020
The release of Attorney General Bill Barr’s letter summarizing his “conclusions” about the Mueller Report has unleashed President Donald Trump. There has been the obvious political strategy: proclaim victory and decimate the opposition before the actual Mueller Report hits the scene. But there is much more going on here than just the political maneuvering expected of anyone in the President’s position.
In what seems like a politically suicidal move, the Trump Administration has ordered the Justice Department to take a legal position that if successful, would completely wipe out the Affordable Care Act. While Trump enthusiasts would say “promises made, promises kept;” it’s difficult to see the electoral upside to the end of pre-existing conditions coverage, coverage expansion, wellness care, and twenty-six year old staying on parents’ insurance.
Mr. Trump has said, over and over, that it will be replaced with a “better” plan, but there is no such plan in sight, and little consensus among Republicans on what that kind of plan might look like. The calculation by someone on the Trump political team has determined that literally “nothing” will contrast well against the 2020 Democratic candidates plans to expand government involvement in health care: the reality of a loss of health care by up to forty million people might have a different effect.
The President has once again doubled-down on the border (by now, it must be something more like quadrupled down, or “octupled” down.) He again threatened Mexico with closing the entire border unless they control the northward flow of migrants, and he now has added the threat of cutting aid to the Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador; the origin of most of the migrants.
This reverses what most has seen as the single effective long-term strategy for dealing with the migrant issue, improving conditions in the Northern Triangle. The Departments of Homeland Security and State were unaware of the pending announcement, scrambling to adapt to the new plans. And while the $500 million in aid must be tempting, it is unlikely that it could be diverted to the President’s proud project at the border, the Wall (Washington Post.)
They have also declared the need to deport “unaccompanied minors,” those who have crossed the border without parents (NBC.)
It is clear that Trump 2020 has made the decision that “the Wall” is their winning strategy; and that “promise kept” must be defended at all costs, even if it hasn’t really happened.
The Education Department, led by their insipid Secretary, Betsy DeVos, has become the striking point for reducing the reach of the Federal government. While the proposed cut of federal funding for Special Olympic was dramatically reversed by the President; it was only the tip of the iceberg for Education Department cuts of programs. Millions of dollars have been reduced, but even more have been transferred from existing programs to Ms. DeVos’s pet projects in charter and independent schools.
2020 Trump will point to this as a signature move to get “the government” out of education, and give “choice in education” to “the people;” a rallying point for the right.
And behind the scenes, the Administration has continued its assault on protections for American wildlife and lands. The Interior Department lifted endangered species protection on the greater sage grouse, with the net effect of opening nine million acres of US controlled land for mining and oil exploration. Not only does this pay off the President’s friends in those industries: it feeds into his narrative that there is no need to explore alternative energy sources (Washington Post.)
As the current swirl over the Mueller Report fills the air, the Trump campaign for 2020 is laying the groundwork for the election. They are intent on reenacting the campaign of 2016, added to “#MAGA” the Vice President’s mantra of “promises made, promises kept.” It is a strategy that will do little to expand the President’s electoral base, but it is one that will energize the support he does have.
The second part of that plan must then be for the Democrats to in some way self-destruct, in order to recreate the electoral math of 2016. Democrats – the choice is yours.
