Why is Ohio Red?
Listening to the “pundits,” Ohio is becoming a state no longer “in play.” Traditionally Ohio was a most important swing state, often determining which Party would control the Presidency. But more recently, Ohio has trended more and more Republican, not so much in the Presidential elections (Trump won in 2016, but Obama won in 2012 and 2008) but in statewide offices. The Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Auditor are all held by Republicans, as are five of the seven elected Supreme Court Justices.
So is Ohio now just a “Red” state? It sure feels that way, as the State Legislature becomes the incubator for every ideologically based Republican law. This is most obvious with the passage of the anti-abortion “heartbeat bill,” banning abortions from the moment a fetal heartbeat is discovered, between six and eight weeks of pregnancy, often before a woman even knows she’s pregnant. Under the current US Supreme Court ruling of Roe v Wade, the law is unconstitutional, but Ohio’s Republicans are happy to be a “test case” for the new Supreme Court of Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
The Republican Party in Ohio is so anti-abortion that Republican Governor John Kasich appointed the leader of the State Right to Life organization as President of the State Medical Board, even though he isn’t a physician (he no longer is the President of the Board, but remains a member.)
Ohio was also “ground zero” for the Republican “RED MAP” plan, gerrymandering the state to maximize Republican voters and minimize Democrats. The secret deliberations and street by street computer mapping, held in a hotel in Columbus with neither Democrats nor the public allowed to participate, was so effective that even Republicans themselves were surprised. John Husted, the current Lieutenant Governor and former Secretary of State, found the results so biased that he put forward and passed reform of the redistricting process that will go into effect for the 2022 elections.
But there is one giant “anomaly” in the Ohio elective results, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown is a “progressive Democrat” and has held elective office in Ohio since 1975. In what seems to be a “reddening” state, Brown is the big blue difference. Add the Presidential results from 2012 and 2008 and it raises the question; is Ohio going “red,” or are Democrats simply not competing?
In the 2018 elections, “not competing” was the operative term. Looking at the candidates for office, led by Richard Cordray running for Governor, Ohio Democrats failed to find standard bearers that could spark excitement. Cordray was a candidate from the Hillary Clinton mold, a good administrator and a well-known name, but unable to impact on the average voter. He would have made a great Governor, but wasn’t a dynamic candidate. Brown won by seven percent, but Cordray, facing an aging Mike DeWine lost by four. The rest of the statewide ticket followed suit, with every statewide Democrat losing by around four percent.
That sounds like a massive defeat, because it was. But to look at it politically, in 2018, with an uninspiring slate of candidates, the Ohio Democrats were within four percent of statewide office. Republicans in Ohio have a dearth of “exciting” candidates as well, with Husted probably the heir apparent to take the lead. So Ohio remains under Republican control.
What will it take for Democrats to overcome the four percent gap? In 2020, a Presidential turnout of voters may well be enough to put Ohio back in the “Blue” Presidential column, but for statewide offices, up for election in 2022, it is going to take more than retread candidates from the 2018 campaigns. Ohio Democrats need to reach out to find inspiring candidates, candidates that can “fire-up” not just the base in the strongholds of the Northeast and central cities, but can cross the line to make gains in the suburbs that control Ohio politics.
It can happen. The Twelfth Congressional District special election in August of 2018 is the playbook, as Democrat Danny O’Connor came within two thousand votes of Republican Troy Balderson in a heavily Republican area. O’Connor made huge gains in the northern suburban areas around Columbus, demonstrating the path to regaining Democratic success.
It will take exciting candidates. It will take clever strategies. And, of course, it will take money (something that O’Connor had in the special election, but not so much in the general election three months later.) But the claim that Ohio has turned “Red” for good is premature. Ohio is still within the grasp of the Democrats: they need to find the Conor Lambs or Elaine Lurias as well as the solid Democratic veterans. And find the money to support them. Do all that, and Ohio can stop being the “proving ground” for all of the far-right Republican strategies, and get back to governing for the people again.
