Born to Be In It

Born to Be In It

Beto O’Rourke – announcing his candidacy for President of the United States

Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke declared his candidacy for the Presidency of the United States.  While he made an official “social media” announcement, sitting on the couch beside his wife; in almost Trumpian fashion he preempted his own headline with a premature tweet to his hometown newspaper twelve hours before.

He joins a crowded field, with fifteen other candidates already declared.  Three others (and probably more not “out” yet) are expected to announce, including the “elephant in the room,” former Vice President Joe Biden. It’s reminiscent of the Democratic primaries of 1992 and 1976, when there was no apparent front-runner.  In both, a “dark horse” candidate emerged to win the nomination, and go onto secure the Presidency; Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Bill Clinton in 1992. (Yes I definitely ignored the 1988 primary, when Michael Dukakis emerged to run against George HW Bush.  I don’t think the end of the Reagan Presidency, despite the Iran-Contra Affair, was analogous to the post-Nixon election in 1976, or the Ross Perot candidacy in 1992.)  

There are many reasons why so many candidates are running for President.  The first is the “blood in the water” scenario, as Democrats see the more than troubled Presidency of Donald Trump as an opportunity.  The belief is:  IF you can catch on and survive the primary process to win the nomination, defeating Trump in the general election will be the easier of the two races.  They see this is “their time,” or more exactly, their “best shot;” particularly if they were “born to be in it;” the Presidency of the United States.

But it’s not just political considerations and ego that brings them into the race.  Each of these candidates see the United States at some crossroads:  generationally (time for the baby boomers to go,) environmentally (the Green New Deal,) culturally (the #METOO and LGBTQIA movements) and economically (income inequality.)   And all of them see the Trump Presidency as an American disaster, one that has placed the fate and future of the nation at risk.

One potential candidate who has already withdrawn from consideration is Ohio’s Senator Sherrod Brown. In the crowded field, Brown could not find his path to the nomination, but his brief interest in the Presidency has already impacted the campaign.  From Amy Klobuchar to Beto O’Rourke to Elizabeth Warren, almost every candidate has adopted Brown’s message of the “dignity of work,” appealing to American laborers to vote their economic interests, instead of the “wedge” issues offered by Republicans (wall, abortion, “socialism,” kneeling during the National Anthem.)

For many Democrats, O’Rourke offers the uplifting candidacy reminiscent of 2008 Barack Obama (and for West Wing aficionados, he offers the joy of the Matt Santos campaign.)  He took on and almost defeated Ted Cruz in red/red Texas, maybe in a more purple nation he can thread the needle of a more moderate Democrat and still appeal to the “new” millennial vote.

Should Vice President Biden enter the race, he and O’Rourke will share an ideological lane.  Both are from the “moderate” wing of the Party, particularly when compared to Senators Warren and Sanders.  Current polling shows Biden as having the best chance of defeating Trump in 2020.  He is the “surest” candidate, and yet is some ways he is also the most vulnerable. Biden’s age is definitely a factor; at seventy-six years of age, if elected in 2020, he would be eighty-three at the end of his first term.  

As a career politician, Biden brings with him all of the experience, and all of the baggage, that stretches back to his first election in 1970.  He was elected to the Senate in 1972.  While that incredible depth of experience, including eight years as an extremely active Vice President in the Obama administration, obviously makes him the most qualified candidate in the race, it also brings with it the baggage of three failed Presidential bids, the Clarence Thomas hearings, the crime control act, and a plagiarism scandal.  

For the left wing of the Democratic Party, neither O’Rourke nor Biden offer the dramatic economic changes that Warren or Sanders suggest.  For the environmental wing, they don’t have the intense focus of Jay Inslee.  And for those looking for diversity, for the end of “white dudes” as candidates, they don’t offer the diversity that Castro, Harris, Booker, Gillibrand or Buttigieg  represent.

Beto O’Rourke is in. He’s gotten a ton of attention, and hours of time on MSNBC just this morning.  But the Democrats have a long way to go before they face the ultimate test: moving America away from the disaster that is the Trump Presidency.

ADDENDUM – The President (Trump) has decided that his derogatory nickname for Beto is “Robert Francis” – presumably after Bobby (Robert Francis) Kennedy. Kennedy was the candidate who was able to unite liberals and workers in the Democratic Party – hardly a derogatory thing!!! check out the Vanity Fair spread on Beto

Declared Candidate for the Democratic Nomination for President in 2020 (3/14/19)

• John Delaney – former Congressman from Maryland, Entrepreneur
• Andrew Yang – Tech Entrepreneur
• Julian Castro – former HUD Secretary, former Mayor of San Antonio
• Kamala Harris – US Senator from California, former California Attorney General
• Cory Booker – US Senator from New Jersey, former Mayor of Newark
• Tulsi Gabbard – Congresswoman from Hawaii, Hindu, Iraqi War Veteran
• Elizabeth Warren – Senator from Massachusetts, founded Consumer Protection Bureau
• Amy Klobuchar – Senator from Minnesota, former corporate lawyer
• Bernie Sanders – Senator from Vermont, career socialist/independent
• Jay Inslee – Governor of Washington, former US Congressman
• John Hickenlooper – Governor of Colorado, former Mayor of Denver, Entrepreneur
• Kirsten Gillibrand – Senator from New York, former Congressman, corporate lawyer
• Pete Buttigieg – Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, gay, Afghanistan War veteran
• Marianne Williamson – best selling author of 12 books on spirituality 
• Beto O’Rourke – former Congressman from Texas, former El Paso Councilman, Entrepreneur
• *Joe Biden – former Vice President, former Senator from Delaware
• *Stacey Abram – former Georgia State Rep, former Georgia Governor Candidate
• *Eric Swalwell – Congressman from California 
• * – not declared