Democrats: Brave New World or Do-Over
The Democratic Party preparing for the 2020 Presidential election is far less intellectually divided than the current media projects. The “divisions” between the candidates are often a matter of degree rather than difference; from Mike Blumenthal to Bernie Sanders they all want to improve healthcare, help the middle class, and deal with climate change. How much, how far, how radical; those are the differences of degree that divide Democrats.
But there are real choices still to be made. The “new” Democrats; Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Booker and the rest, want to lead the Party with an agenda for change. They offer healthcare for all, a deadline to meet for climate change, and real efforts to reduce the income discrepancy between the middle class and the one percent. The “moderate” Democrats, Amy Klobuchar, and potentially Sherrod Brown, Beto O’Rourke or Joe Biden; still talk about those ideas; but offer a more seductive value: a surer thing.
If the goal of Democrats is to “change the world” then the new world candidates are available. The risk: in trying to change the world, do Democrats give away the vast middle of the American electorate and re-elect Donald Trump, or whatever right-wing replacement the Republican Party finds. Or do Democrats chose the more-centrist candidates, and risk giving away the left wing of the party to a third party, or to the disillusionment that made many desert the voting process entirely, the real issue that haunted the election of 2016.
In essence, do Democrats want a do-over of 2016 with a different candidate leading the ticket, or do they want to press the “progressive” agenda?
For older more moderate Democrats, alleviating the trauma of the Trump election has become the prime goal. That means not taking chances: put a “white man” on the ticket, go with Sherrod’s “Medicare to 55” rather than for all, raise the minimum wage but no massive program to change income inequality. It’s Democrat-middle, not Democrat-left.
The moderate ticket hopes to regain the white, working class vote lost to Trump. It also hopes to claim the near-extinct moderate Republicans disgusted with Trump, and the white suburban Mom: “he grabbed what!!!” vote. It worked in the 2018 Congressional election, why not in 2020. It is the coalition that should have elected Hillary Clinton; and they’re not wrong – she did win the popular vote.
A Biden/Klobuchar ticket, or a Brown/Harris ticket, or a Biden/O’Rourke ticket would meet the moderate bill (yes I am ignoring Booker, Castro and others, but they could be plugged into any of these combinations.)
For New World Democrats this would be a tough sell. They see the winning coalition not as a re-boot of the old days, but as an expanded electorate. The demographics show two things: American voters should be younger, and they should be much more diverse. These Democrats believe that the answer is not to get moderate white people to change their vote, but to convince the younger and diverse voters to come to the polls. They believe Democrats need to offer fresh, aspirational ideas to motivate those voters. The “Green New Deal,” some form of universal health care, reforming educational financing: all ideas that encourage a “new Democratic coalition.”
There is always the specter of real division, of a Bernie Sanders, running in the Democratic Party while maintaining his Independent status, breaking away from a centrist Party and running a third party candidacy to the left. While everyone, even Bernie himself, certainly recognizes that this is the sure way to elect a Republican, it can still happen. Remember Ralph Nader in 2000, claiming there was no difference between Gore and Bush. His name on the Green Party ballot made all of the difference in Florida, changing the Presidential outcome. With the perspective of history, there was a HUGE difference between Bush and Gore. Two words say it all: Iraq and Environment.
As an old “liberal,” my heart wants to be inspired, to fall for an aspirational candidate who is offering positive change for all Americans. As a 2016 traumatized Democrat and current Resistor; I realize the horrible difference those 77,744 votes made (total votes that Trump beat Clinton in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania combined.) It changed the electoral college from Clinton to Trump. Above all else, Democrats cannot lose the 2020 Presidential election. Literally, the fate of America and the entire world are at stake.
I don’t have to answer today. We are a full year away from the first primaries, and twenty-one months from the election. We don’t know what the results of the Mueller investigation will be, and we haven’t had the chance to see how these candidates will shake out.
Maybe a middle-right third party, a Kasich/Hickenlooper ticket, will change the entire dynamics of the field. Imagine that: Bernie Independent on the left, Biden Moderate-Democrat, Kasich Independent on the Right, then Trump Republican: Whew!!! But there’s no need to DECIDE, not yet.
Ultimately the Democrats will need to make some choices, at least choices of degree. Let’s get closer to the show before we decide.
