Through His Eyes
Best when read accompanied by In Your Eyes by Peter Gabriel
So for all of us Democrats, it seems the President has placed himself in an impossible position. He’s defended “WALL” using the Vatican as an example, tweeting that “WALLS” and “wheels” have worked for thousands of years, and creating stories about the Obama’s home protection (not a ten foot wall.) He has let Vice President Pence and Senator Lindsey Graham float possible compromises, and then quickly denounced their ideas. He gave a twenty-minute rambling explanation on national television during the cabinet meeting, then called Democrats to the “Situation Room” to tell them how they should vote. Not surprisingly, they didn’t agree.
It seems unreasonable, unthinking, and unhinged. He has closed parts of the government, holding hundreds of thousands of paychecks and national parks hostage for “WALL.” From any reasonable political standpoint he has backed himself into an unwinnable corner; if he doesn’t get his $5 Billion for “WALL” and reopen the government, he loses. Even the Republican leaders, notably Senator Mitch McConnell, are silent on the issue.
Let’s look at the numbers. According to Gallup Polling, the President’s overall approval rating is 39% approve, 55% disapprove (and a poor 5% don’t have an opinion.) 89% of Republicans approve of his Presidency, with 39% of independents and 8% of Democrats (really, Democrats?) And finally, 26% of American voters consider themselves Republican, 32% Democrat, and 39% Independent.
Just a little math from an old government teacher (check the figuring.) What President Trump’s Republican approval number really represents, is 89% of 26%, or 23% of the total voting population. So why does that give him so much confidence?
The reality is that it doesn’t, but there is one more figure that needs to be noted. In the 2016 primary election the overall voter turnout, according to Pew Researchwas 14.8% of registered voters. This is compared to the 61.4%turnout in the general election.
14.8% of American voters chose the candidates for President. 14.8% also chose the candidates for the Senate and the House of Representatives. That small sliver of the voting population controls who gets to go on the general election ballot; they are the motivated party voters who clearly identify. In the Republican Party, they are the 89% that approve of the Trump Presidency.
So the President has this weapon remaining: his approval (or disapproval) still controls the Republican Party electorate. His tweet, or off-hand comment, really does have the power to end a political career. Ask Republican Congressman Mark Sanford of South Carolina, a career politician who had been Governor of the state. He had the audacity to criticize Donald Trump, and the President successfully backed his primary opponent. Sanford retires today from the Congress (notably, Democrat Joe Cunningham won the seat in the general election.)
Newly minted Republican Senator Mitt Romney criticized the President in a Washington Posteditorial. But Romney is in a unique position as the Senator from Utah, one of the “reddest” states in the country that does not strongly support the President. The Mormon influence in the state does not blend well with the President’s background and actions; Romney is politically safe to criticize.
So while the President’s position on the “WALL” is not popular (62% of Americans do not support it) it absolutely does resonate with the Republican base. Keeping that base happy is essential to the President’s survival, as their happiness gives him power over Republican Senators.
It is foreseeable that the Democratic House of Representatives will find it necessary to impeach the President. Impeachment is the bringing of charges to the Senate, it is up to the Senate of the United States to determine whether to remove the President from office (historically no President has been removed from office, Andrew Johnson survived by one vote in 1869, and Richard Nixon resigned prior to being impeached.)
The Senate requires two-thirds vote to remove from office, sixty-seven Senators. Currently the Senate has fifty-three Republicans, forty-five Democrats and two Independents (Sanders of Vermont, King of Maine) that caucus with the Democrats. To remove the President it would require all the Democrats and Independents, plus TWENTY Republican Senators.
The WALL isn’t about security on the Southern Border. It isn’t really even about the President showing his muscles to the new House of Representatives. What it is about is solidifying the Republican base to maintain control of the Republican Senators. This has been the President’s “Russiagate” strategy since Rudy Giuliani was hired; it’s not about the law, or the facts, but about keeping the BASE to keep pressure on the Senate when impeachment comes up.
To my fellow “Resistance” members; this is not time to despair. The Mueller report is not completed, we don’t know what Robert Mueller knows, and neither does the House or the Senate. Until that information is revealed, and the Nation gets to see what really happened, we can’t determine the impact. The “concrete wall” that Trump is trying to build around his base may turn out to be a slatted fence, or bamboo, or simple a dirt line in the sand.
When the Report arrives, we may well see the view change through Republican Senators’ eyes.
