Hostage
In 1978, Shi’ite revolutionaries in Iran led by the Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the US supported Shah (King) Pahlavi. Soon after, the Shah was given sanctuary by the United States, and Iran wanted him back. On November 4th, 1979, fifty-two Americans were taken hostage by Iranian Revolutionary Guards to “trade” for him.
For four hundred and forty-four days, President of the United States Jimmy Carter did everything he could diplomatically and militarily to bring them home, including the first highly complex Delta Force rescue mission – that failed spectacularly.
1980 was an election year, and Carter was running for his second term in office. However, he pledged to stay at the White House until the hostages were freed, and was forced to run a large portion of his Presidential campaign from “the Rose Garden.” While the strategy was good enough to win a contested primary against Ted Kennedy, it became symbolic of Carter’s inability to solve the hostage crisis in the general election.
Carter was trapped in the White House. It was a choice he and his advisors made, but it allowed the Ayatollah to dictate events in the American election. Ronald Reagan was able to play his best role, the “cowboy” riding into town and taking charge, and Carter looked like the banker hiding behind a desk. Reagan won in a landslide: the hostages were released during the actual inauguration, and former President Carter flew off to welcome them home.
President Donald Trump has orchestrated a shutdown of the United States government. He signaled the coming confrontation in a televised “meeting” with Democratic leaders Pelosi and Schumer; the goal to display Trump’s strength by being willing to “close it down” to get “Wall.” Pelosi and Schumer used the cameras to make it very clear that a shutdown was “on Trump.”
A week later, he seemed poised to compromise, signaling to the Senate that he was willing to deal on “Wall” later. After the Senate unanimously passed a Continuing Resolution keeping the government open, overnight the pressure from the media, particularly Fox and Friends and Rush Limbaugh, made Trump change his mind. He ordered the Republican leadership in the House to pass a $5 Billion Wall bill, which the Senate rejected, and the shutdown was on.
Trump found himself trapped in the White House, much as Carter was forty years before. He couldn’t go to Mar-A-Lago for the Christmas golf and buddy-fest; he had to stay in the White House, watch cable television and tweet. When that became too much, he secretly flew to Iraq to do “Christmas with the troops,” but even that turned into an issue. He tweeted the classified location of a Seal Team, and somehow his campaign paraphernalia ended up handed out to the military crowds. Trump Flags and MAGA Hats looked odd in the hands of American troops on foreign soil, and Trump’s campaign style speech made it worse. On top of all that, he managed to offend the Iraqi government.
So he’s trapped back in Washington. His lawyer, Rudy Giuliani complained that Nancy Pelosi went to Hawaii for Christmas (reported by Fox News and the rest of the alt-right press but oddly NO mainstream media outlet) but it only emphasized the point: it’s Trump’s shutdown and he’s stuck.
The Dems will stay out of town until Pelosi is installed as Speaker. When she gets back in Washington, things won’t get much better for Trump.
He can continue to keep the government closed, with over 800,000 employees without pay (he’s already rubbed salt in the wound by denying them a scheduled pay increase.) He can demand that the Congress accede to his demand for “WALL.” It seems unlikely that if the old Republican majority House and Senate couldn’t pass “WALL,” that a new Democratic majority in the House would do so.
The House and Senate could agree to the original Continuing Resolution, but it would require Trump’s signature to become law. If he refuses to sign, it seems unlikely that Congress could override it. If nothing is solved – he will remain trapped in the White House, unable to get beyond the issue. While his “shut down stand” may look strong to his base, his ineffectiveness, like Carter’s, will begin to take its toll.
If there is one way to characterize Mr. Trump, it’s “mercurial.” He has consistently changed his mind on a dime. So perhaps he’ll flip again, and make a deal with “Chuck and Nancy” for immigration reform with some “WALL” included: but he’s already missed Christmas, and the 2018 New Year’s Eve Party at Mar-A-Lago without him will be — SAD.
