Raising the Stakes
President Trump is a man of his word; sort of. Two weeks ago, he told incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer that he would shut down the government if he didn’t get $5 Billion for his border wall. Then, he made a deal to keep the government open and argue the issue later, a deal Vice President Pence delivered to the US Senate. That was the Continuing Resolution the Senate unanimously voted for; but then the President changed his mind. He told outgoing Speaker Ryan to get his $5 Billion, and the House voted for that on party lines. The Senate voted against it, and the government closed for lack of funds.
So the government shut down over Christmas. Over 800,000 government employees are effected, some working without pay (including the Border Patrol, Coast Guard, and the TSA, airport security) and some were laid off. Both of those groups expect to be paid for their lost time and money, though that is dependent on the President and Congress. On the other hand, the contractors who work for the government, including thousands of custodians, just lost two weeks wages. There has never been a “make-up” provision for them.
The Office of Personnel Management has sent out sample letters for employees to send to banks and landlords begging for extended time or reduced amounts. That is of little help to those who are left with empty bank accounts. The national impact is even greater: the 2013 shut down took $24 Billion out of the US economy, effecting us all. That was thirteen days: we already on the sixth day now.
Today President Trump raised the stakes even higher. The President has threatened to close the entire Southern Border unless he gets his $5 Billion. Trade across the Southern Border is $1 BILLION A DAY: the President is willing to shut this down not because of a particular security threat, but in anticipation of passing legislation that will fund what he wants, eventually. The border wouldn’t remain shut until the “wall” is built, only until the President gets his way.
The President told Pelosi, Schumer and the country that he would take responsibility for the shut down, but now he’s blaming Pelosi, saying Schumer would make “a deal.” He’s doing this because Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives come January 3rd, and the President will be forced to deal with a Democratic House rather than one dominated by his friends in the Freedom Caucus. Pelosi should put the Continuing Resolution to a vote in her House where it would pass. The Senate, still controlled by the Republicans, would then be faced with the same “deal” they passed unanimously; but what Senator McConnell will allow the Senate to do is still unclear.
So what happens next? In the beginning of December there was a deal on the table for $1.6 Billion of “border security improvements.” With the new House, is that deal now off the table? Or will McConnell, who was ambushed by the President in the first place, allow a vote on the Continuing Resolution? Should that pass the Senate and House, will the President veto it? And is it conceivable that Congress could generate a two-thirds override? Some claim that’s possible, though I imagine the Republican Senate would rally round the President, and the shut down would continue.
There is still a deal to be made; though with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker it’s going to need more “sweeteners” for the Democrats. DACA or other immigration reforms might be alternatives, and maybe $2 Billion for “border security” so the President can claim victory. But if Mr. Trump is determined to get his $5 Billion without any form of compromise, then the author of “The Art of the Deal” may find himself without a functioning government for a long term. That may work to his advantage in delaying civil lawsuits in New York, but it’s no way to run a country.
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