What We Know
A flood of news has been unleashed about the Mueller investigation in the past few days. Manafort broke his plea bargain deal. Corsi refused his. Trump turned in written answers to Mueller’s questions. What is going on?
We know the following: Corsi predicted the release by Wikileaks of emails hacked from the Democratic National Committee and Clinton Campaign Chairman John Podesta. He discussed the leaks, before they occurred, with Republican operative and Trump advisor Roger Stone. While Corsi denies that he had a direct communication with Wikileaks and/or Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, there is text and email evidence to the contrary.
Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his team offered a “plea deal” to Corsi, agreeing not to prosecute him for multiple charges of lying to Federal Prosecutors, committing perjury to Congressional Committees, and obstructing justice. Instead, Corsi would plead guilty to one charge of lying to Federal investigators, receive probation, and cooperate with the investigation.
Corsi turned the offer down, claiming it was his intuition that allowed him to predict the Wikileaks releases, despite the evidence. He now is open to multiple federal felony charges, and possible prison time.
Former Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort his violated the terms of his plea agreement with the Special Counsel. The Mueller team filed with the DC Federal Court, stating that Manafort lied to them during his “cooperation” phase, and in addition, his lawyers shared information with a subject of the investigation, namely the President. Rudy Giuliani, one of the President’s lawyers, has bragged about it. Manafort was, in fact, playing for both “sides.” Manafort is now facing sentencing for multiple felony charges resulting in several years in Federal prison.
We also know that there is a sealed indictment against Julian Assange filed in the Federal Court of Eastern Virginia. We do not know whether it was filed by the Mueller team, or whether it was about some other Wikileaks action, but it means that the United States could well ask the United Kingdom to extradite Assange, should he be forced out of his sanctuary in the Ecuadoran Embassy.
And finally, there are news reports that Paul Manafort visited Assange in London three times before he took the job as Chairman, the last time being just prior to getting the job. While these reports have not been confirmed by other news outlets, The Guardianhas proven to be accurate in the past (full disclosure, I have grave concerns about The Guardian’s willingness to expose intelligence, as opposed to their accuracy – Edward Snowden’s revelations are one example.)
We know that if a direct connection is made between Assange and the Trump Campaign, it could be the basis for a conspiracy charge. Assange is already linked to the Russian Intelligence Agency that hacked the emails, and Manafort has connections to Russian oligarchs who are close to Vladimir Putin. We also know that Corsi, and through him, Stone, had prior knowledge of Wikileaks email releases.
What We Can Speculate About
Manafort: why would he guarantee a long federal prison sentence by breaking his cooperation agreement? The sixty-nine year old man can now expect to be incarcerated until he is in his eighties. There are three possible reasons for this action.
First, Manafort may have simply gambled, as he has done throughout his whole professional life. He tried to play the Special Counsel, using the information he was getting from the investigation (from questioning) to feed information to the President’s lawyers. Manafort may have felt that he could get away with this.
Second, Manafort may have a promise of a Presidential Pardon “in his pocket.” The Trump lawyers have discussed this openly, perhaps there is a “deal” done that Manafort could sit through all of this, in jail, but ultimately would receive a pardon. A pardon would clear Manafort of any Federal charges, however it would not relieve him of state charges in Virginia in New York that could result in multiple years in state prison.
Third, Manafort may be acting as some kind of “triple agent:” cooperating with Mueller, feeding the President’s lawyers, and acting as an agent of Russian Intelligence. Manafort is deeply indebted to Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch and friend of Russian President Putin. The pressure of that debt may have pushed Manafort into a deal with Russian Intelligence to influence the Trump Campaign. He volunteered to run the campaign, despite the fact that he was deeply indebted to multiple entities. The Russians have made it eminently clear what happens to folks who cross them; the Novochok murders in the United Kingdom are evidence. Perhaps Manafort knows that if he talks, he dies.
Corsi: why would he pass up a true “get out of jail free” card? It would seem that he must have a “better card,” perhaps a Presidential Pardon offer as well. Or, perhaps Corsi’s friend Roger Stone has somehow convinced him that they can weather this investigation by stonewalling. Stone, himself a subject of the Mueller investigation, is a fierce admirer of G Gordon Liddy, the Nixon aide who chose to go to jail rather than talk.
So what might Mueller have?
Manafort visited Assange right before he volunteered himself to be Chairman of the Trump Campaign. It was assumed at the time that he was just trying to “get back in the game” after years working for dictators abroad. Perhaps the reason was more nefarious. Russian Intelligence had the emails, and Assange knew it. To have the greatest impact on the election, Russian Intelligence would want someone on the inside of the campaign to coordinate. Manafort would be perfect.
Manafort left the campaign when his Ukrainian business relationships were revealed. Wikileaks and Russian Intelligence still needed coordination with the campaign, so a new corridor had to be accessed. Roger Stone, a long time informal advisor to Donald Trump, was an obvious conduit. To reach Stone, conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi would be a good contact.
All of which leaves the question: if this is true, who else in the Trump operation knew? Donald Trump Sr. is well known for micro-managing his business, and keeping his family close. If it can be shown that the current President of the United States knew and/or cooperated with Russian hacking of emails, and used those emails to support his campaign, then Mueller has a case of conspiracy to defraud the United States.
While Mueller won’t indict a serving President, he certainly can report his findings to the House of Representatives. They have the duty to determine whether those charges rise to the Constitutional definition of “high crimes and misdemeanors:” the Constitutional grounds for impeachment.
