The Grand Strategy
When Steve Bannon joined the Trump Campaign, he brought his strong theories to an organization that had lots of energy but little foundation. Bannon believed that the existential threat to world safety was from the Middle East, particularly, Iran. Much of the foreign policy espoused by the Trump Administration came from his view: the desire to improve relationships with Russia, the immediate decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the coziness with other Middle Eastern powers.
John Bolton, the current National Security Advisor, is another proponent of this view; stop Iranian expansion and contain Iranian support of terrorism. But perhaps the biggest proponent of the “grand strategy” is Presidential Advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Kushner has been close to Israeli Prime Minister “Bebe” Netanyahu since childhood, and has developed a peer-to-peer friendship with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS.)
The Grand Strategy: array an alliance of the Sunni Muslim nations led by Saudi Arabia, with the tacit cooperation of Jewish Israel, against Shiite Muslim Iran. Add Russian support, and the Trump Administration believes they have the key to peace in the Middle East, protecting Israel, and controlling the costs of oil for the next generations.
Russia, with significant internal pressure to control Muslim extremists, may be willing to go along with the deal, as long as they get control of Syria through the Assad regime. But Turkey has been an issue. The authoritarian regime of Recip Erdogan has its own plan for the Middle East, including the suppression of the Kurds, and the restriction of democracy at home. They see themselves as the key Sunni power in the region, harking back to the days of the Ottoman Empire. And as a member of NATO, Turkey is a key to projecting US power into the Middle East through bases located in the nation.
The fate of the Grand Strategy may be linked to the fate of two individuals: Jamal Khashoggi and Fethullah Gulen. These two are proving to be a test for the Trump Administration’s commitment to the Plan: whether the moral imperatives that have been the basis of American action, fairness and justice, will be upheld or fall to the situational needs of the Plan.
Jamal Khashoggi: a US resident and Washington Post columnist, excruciatingly tortured, killed and dismembered by agents of the Saudi regime after being lured into their embassy in Istanbul, Turkey. The entire process was captured on audio by Turkish intelligence, and shared to the world. The US Central Intelligence Agency concludes that the murder was ordered by MBS, to stop criticism of his takeover of Saudi power.
The murder puts the US in an awkward position. The Trump Administration and Jared Kushner have staked their entire Plan on the relationship with MBS, and have accepted all excuses made by the Saudi regime for Khashoggi’s death. But as it becomes clear that this was MBS’s work, the Administration’s will need to decide: accept the murder, or ally with a murderer.
Fethullah Gulen: a Turkish cleric who has been exiled to the United States for decades. He is a legal US resident, granted political asylum. He is also the “bête noire” of the Erdogan regime; Erdogan himself blames Gulen for an attempted military coup last year. Erdogan knows what the US wants: Turkish cooperation with the Grand Strategy, and continued access to bases in Turkey. So he has offered a deal: give him Gulen and he will fall in line with US desires. Gulen’s fate in Turkish hands is clear: imprisonment, torture, and death await.
Is one man’s life worth a plan to gain world stability and peace? If our nation gives up moral standing and accepts the murder of one and condemns a second to a similar fate, does the end of “the Plan” justify the means? While the US has always claimed a high moral standard to the world, there have always been actions belying that view. But seldom have US moral standards been put to such a public test: ally and abet murderers, or not.
President Trump is known as the “transactional” President; he knows how to make a deal. Khashoggi and Gulen are pawns, will Trump sacrifice them in his bid for a Grand victory, or take a more moral view? The former seems more likely, Gulen ought to find a safer environment than the Pennsylvania Poconos. I hear Montreal is nice this time of year.
