Anticipation

Anticipation

Carly Simon playing in “Anticipation” in the background

There seems to be a growing malaise among Democrats about the coming mid-term elections.  We are told that the “Trump Base” is being energized by the lies the President is spouting:  from the “invasion of the caravan” to the “Democratic Mob (it’s funny how those two seem to get conflated – is he really saying Democrats are bringing in 6000 immigrants to add to a “mob” against him?)   And now there are the phantom riots in California (of course California) not to be confused with the “Bowling Green Massacre” of yore.

The common theme seems to be if the “Trump Base” shows up at the polls, they win, just like 2016.  We can see it in the polling; what looked like a Democratic sure-thing two months ago now seems a lot shakier.

To quote the kids from Parkland – I call B.S.  Here’s why.

First of all, let’s look at history.  Since Franklin Roosevelt became President in 1932, in the twenty-one midterms held, only three times has the President’s Party House NOT lost votes in the House; 1934, 1998 and 2004.  In fifteen of those elections the Party in power lost votes in the Senate as well. It is traditional, historic, and it makes sense.  After two years of a President, Americans have always had a tendency to “hedge their bet,” giving more power to the Party out of the White House.  We have a tradition of wanting more “checks and balances” on the now not-so-new President.

Yes we are in the “post-apocalyptic” Trump Era; where all rules seem to be “off;” but the weight of history still weighs on the Democratic side – for this election.

Second, polling is not just the “random” phone calls placed to thousands of people that we think of from the “old days.”  Fifty years ago, the biggest concern was that somehow a polling sample would be biased like the famous 1948 polling that showed Republican Tom Dewey defeating Democrat Harry Truman.   Its biggest problem was that it depended on telephone responses in an America where many didn’t have phones yet.

Today polling is done with much smaller numbers of respondents, and their responses are weighed to match their proportion in the voting population.  This “voting turnout model” tries to match the profile of the respondent with a predicted voter model, that they then use to anticipate how that group will show up to vote.  It all sounds technical, and it is, but the key point is this:  Democrats traditionally don’t show up for mid-term elections, so polling models will reflect that tradition.  If Democrats overwhelm the model, with a significantly larger voter turnout, then the outcomes will be different.

If Democrats didn’t vote in mid-terms, they surely didn’t show up for special elections.  But in the “Trump Era” they have, over and over again. They showed up overwhelmingly in the Alabama special Senate election where Democrat Doug Jones won.  It happened in the Pennsylvania special House election where Democrat Conor Lamb won.  It happened in the Ohio House special election where Democrat Danny O’Connor nearly won, almost flipping a District that voted two-thirds for the Republican in 2016.  Recent history trends to a large Democratic turnout.

And Republicans – they always show up.  That’s been the history over the same seventy-two year period.  So if Republicans always show up, and Democrats usually don’t; but Dems are showing up now – that should mean a big change.

And why wouldn’t Democrats show up.  There is a huge list of issues that should drive Democrats to the polls, led by healthcare.  Yesterday the Trump Administration issued rules allowing states to exempt themselves from parts of the Affordable Care Act, including the pre-existing conditions clauses (Huffington Post.)  This week the President is examining ways of removing civil rights from the transgendered.  The United States is threatening to withdraw from nuclear weapons treaties, and the Republican leaders of Congress, having given away trillions in tax cuts, are now discussing how to reduce Medicare and Social Security costs.

If that doesn’t get Dems to the polls, DACA, child separation, Kavanaugh, all should motivate them.  And if those issues motivate Republicans too, so be it.  History shows that when Dems show up, they win.  They would have in 2016 too, had the total negativity of the election not persuaded many to stay home.

Don’t let today’s negativity stop you.  History is on the Democrat’s side.

Vote.

Author: Marty Dahlman

I'm Marty Dahlman. After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! I've also spent a lot of time in politics, working campaigns from local school elections to Presidential campaigns. View all posts by Marty Dahlman