A Universal Solution

Notes after a weekend off:

Last night another victim of a young Bret Kavanaugh came forward to tell her story. It’s four days out from the Judiciary Committee Hearing.  It’s difficult to judge how far the Republican members of the Committee will go to try to push the nomination through, but it’s hard to imagine too many more “…shoes can drop” before Mr. Kavanaugh will be forced to withdraw.

And now Michael Avanatti is stepping into the Kavanaugh fray, saying he has evidence about Dr. Ford’s allegations and the behavior of Kavanaugh’s high school chums in the early 1980’s.  Avanatti may have found an even bigger “ambulance” to chase than Trump and a Porn Star; but he also knows how to work a story.

Also this weekend memos from former Deputy FBI Director McCabe were revealed to the New York Times.  In them, he discusses how the new Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein was worried about the state of the President, and talked about “wearing a wire” when with him.  Was it a joke, or serious?  Should Rosenstein be fired or admired for his concerns?  And politically, who leaked this, and who gained an advantage from Rosenstein being “outted.”  For those who further the “Deepstate” conspiracy, this is “red meat.”  For those who think Trump is unfit, it is further evidence of his failings. Or maybe this is McCabe’s “paybacks” for being fired.  But for those who are whispering in the President’s ear to “fire them all,” it’s just what they needed.

A Universal Solution

The greatest failing of today’s American politics is the inability to get much of substance done.  The great achievement of the Obama Administration, the Affordable Care Act, was left totally vulnerable to succeeding governments, because it did not draw on a consensus.  It was solely a Democratic vote, and plan, and Republicans were left in the cold.

It’s not the Democrats fault.  Both Democrats and Republicans have become so polarized, so wedded to the extremes of their own political base, that they are unwilling and unable to work together.  When politicians talk about “working across the aisle” they do so at the peril of their own re-election.  They will be “primaried;” faced with an opponent from their own party who can “flank” them to the right (Republican) or left (Democrat.)

This division has been structurally built into our political process.  It’s been done through the re-drawing districts by computer from the state to the federal level.  In the far past (twenty years ago) districts had some rough geographic integrity, and while there has been manipulation of District boundaries for political gain since Governor Gerry did it in Massachusetts in 1812, the advent of the modern computer has taken manipulation to an extreme.

Districts are drawn statewide to maximize the power of the party in control, and minimize the party in the minority.  Regardless of the actual percentages, through boundary manipulation the majority can gain enormous power.  For example, here in Ohio in 2016, Donald Trump earned 52% of the vote, will Hillary Clinton gained 44%.

Yet out of the sixteen Congressional Districts in Ohio, twelve are Republican for 75%, and four Democrat for 25%.

This was all done in a hotel room in Columbus in 2011.  The Republican Party controlled the entire re-apportionment process, elected to all of the state-wide offices.  They used a highly developed computer program, carefully dividing the state to maximize their political clout.  Two of the results of this process were Ohio’s 4^thand 9^thDistricts.

The 4^thDistrict was careful to skirt Democrats, running from the suburban Columbus to suburban Toledo.  It is rated in the top ten Republican districts in the United States.

The 9^thDistrict was designed to “dump Democrats” into, so that their political influence would be lessened.  Two generally Democratic districts were stretched into one, pushing two incumbent Democrats into a single district.  It stretches over 100 miles long, but no more than 15 miles wide, stringing along the Lake Erie coast from Toledo to Cleveland.

The effect of this is to minimize the impact of the general election.  No matter how good or bad a Republican in the 4^thor a Democrat in the 9^th, they are very likely to get elected in those districts.  The actual contest is in the primaries.  So when a Republican runs in the 4^thDistrict primary, they are running to the most likely and motivated Republican voters, who tend to be the most conservative.  It’s no surprise then, that the Congressman from the 4^th, Jim Jordan, is one of the most conservative members of the House, leading the “Freedom Caucus.”

Marcy Kaptur, the Democrat representing the 9^th, has been in office for thirty-six years, the longest serving woman in the Congress.  And while she is not as outspoken as Jordan, she has a strong progressive voting record. She won her last election by 68% of the vote.

While it’s easy to blame the Republicans for the structural changes in our government that have created this polarization, what they did was legal, and seemed reasonable to them at the time.  They had the power, and they used it.

But what has happened due to this apportionment process, is that there is no room for “the middle” or for political compromise.  The candidates are unable to risk “crossing the aisle,” as they will be attacked from their base in the next primary. It’s hard to imagine anyone could get to the right of Jim Jordan, but by positioning himself there he guarantees his political future.  He has no political incentive to do otherwise.

Polarization is built into the structure of the process. Until that structure is changed, there’s no point in arguing for cooperation or compromise.  It is the structure of our political apportionment process that determined our current state and must be changed.

To change the world, change the process.  There are varying groups, from both sides of the aisle, who recognize the unintended consequences we are now living, and are working for change. While some on both sides are trying to “get at all,” whether it’s from the far left or far right, America will need to bring everyone along to reach a “better place.”  Everyone includes most of those who you politically disagree with; without them, nothing can be permanent.

As “the Resistance” looks to wind back the damage of the Trump Administration, it would be easy to take the position that “…they did it, so should we.” But that path will simply maintain a cycle of division that prevents real change.  The opposite of Republican division should not be Democratic division:  if it is, nothing gets done.