Trust but Verify
In the 1980’s, President Ronald Reagan drove the Soviet Union to the nuclear bargaining table by outspending them on weapons. The United States was spending 6% of its GDP (gross domestic product) on defense, to match it, the Soviets were forced to spend almost 20% of theirs. Those of the right age will remember the “Star Wars” defense, a satellite in space that could launch rockets at enemy missiles and destroy them above the atmosphere. The US never completed “Star Wars” to our knowledge, but the effort forced the Soviets to spend their rubles to keep up. It was an untenable position that drove them to negotiate. It ultimately was a major cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In the negotiations, which resulted in the INF (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces) treaty and the groundwork for START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) many Americans were fearful that the Soviets could not be trusted: that they would sign the treaties but secretly continue to develop the banned weapons. To these concerns, Reagan responded with an old Russian proverb, “Doveryai, no proveryai,” trust but verify.
From the many essays in “Trump World” it should be clear that I am not a Donald Trump fan. But I am an American, and however I feel about our current President I would like to see him succeed in his dealings with North Korea. To him I say “doveryai, no proveryai.” The North Koreans have a long history of faithless bargaining, agreeing to many things at the table, but continuing in secret with the development of their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama have all hoped for a truthful North Korean response, and have all been let down.
It isn’t that they didn’t know. And it isn’t that they didn’t plan for North Korean subterfuge. They made these treaties in the hope that North Korea would follow through and normalize their relations with the world, but in full knowledge that it was a hope and not a surety. Clinton, Bush and Obama all believed in “Doveryai, no proveryai.”
And now, through what feels like a series of seat of your pants maneuvers, the “Great Deal-maker” is planning to sit at the table with the “Supreme Leader” of North Korea. Perhaps it was the “big stick” strategy that the President has employed, threatening “fire and fury” if the North Koreans won’t give up their nuclear capabilities. Perhaps it is that North Korea has reach a point where they no longer need to test their nuclear tipped ballistic missiles, and can easily give up their testing facilities without losing their arsenal.
Or perhaps, just maybe, the Supreme Leader, spending 22% of his nation’s GDP on defense, has decided it’s time to allow his people to stop starving and to share in the economic development that his neighbors have enjoyed. Perhaps, by Trump allowing Kim to sit at the “big boy table” of world diplomacy; Kim will be willing to bring his country into the economic world where all of the nations around him: Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan; are enjoying great prosperity and a high standard of living for all their people.
President Trump has allowed expectations to rise exponentially. He has violated the rules of diplomacy, giving North Korea the prize of a summit with the leader of the free world, without a price. Trump needs this summit, and he needs it to succeed. He sees this as a way to prevent a Democrat takeover of Congress in the fall, and he may really see it as an advance in world peace. I hope he earns a Nobel Prize, not by having the meeting, but by making real progress in denuclearizing the peninsula.
So to the Trump negotiating team: “Doveryai, no proveryai.” Don’t get in too much of a hurry, estimates are that it would take fifteen years to establish a verification program in North Korea that would really know whether they are disarming or not. Doveryai, no proveryai: we didn’t believe the facts of UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency in 2002, and we invaded Iraq on false information. Some of the folks who pushed for that invasion are members of your team, including the National Security Advisor. Don’t get pushed into failure in negotiations, in order to hurry along and start a war.
And to the American people: “Doveryai, no proveryai.” We know how badly the President wants and needs this effort to succeed. While we wish him luck, we also know that he is the master of “relative truth” and “fake news.” Whatever the perceived or published outcome of a Singapore summit, we must trust but verify too.
