Bomb Iran
Three years ago, John Bolton, now President Trump’s National Security Advisor, authored a New York Times Op-Ed with the title: “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran.” In it he made a case for using military force against an Iranian nuclear program. He stated:
An attack need not destroy all of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but by breaking key links in the nuclear-fuel cycle, it could set back its program by three to five years. The United States could do a thorough job of destruction, but Israel alone can do what’s necessary. Such action should be combined with vigorous American support for Iran’s opposition, aimed at regime change in Tehran.
Yesterday, Ambassador Bolton got his first big success in the Trump Administration as the President withdrew the United States from the “Iran Nuclear Deal.” {While the deal is not a treaty, it is a technical agreement that the United States would remove sanctions on Iran in return for Iran stopping nuclear weapons development and allowing inspections. Rather than Bolton’s three to five-year set-back, it froze nuclear development with a ten year window. The US withdrawal reneges on the agreement, and re-imposes sanctions.}
The Iran deal was the signature foreign policy success for the Obama Administration (and therefore a key target for Trump) and was negotiated with multi-lateral cooperation by many nations; the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China among them. Critically, it did NOT address Iranian support of terrorism in the Middle East, nor did it deal with Iranian territorial aspirations in Iraq. It fixed on what was considered the most important issue: preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. It provided a ten-year window for further negotiations, and continual inspections even after the agreement expired.
But President Trump changed that yesterday. And while the other nations who were part of the deal vow to continue, the United States sanctions will make it near impossible for them to afford the economic cost. So the Iran nuclear deal is probably over, and we are looking at a different Middle East today than we did yesterday.
The US resumption of sanctions will certainly have widespread consequences. Internally, US businesses with open contracts in Iran (notably Boeing) will be cut off. Internationally, sanctions will force our allies to choose between dealing with Iran or dealing with us. Perhaps they will succumb to US pressure, or, just as the Chinese responded to new tariffs, they will simply choose to find other supplies. China is buying Mexican soybeans, leaving US farmers out.
It is likely that Iran will begin to work on nuclear weapons, and will achieve nuclear “breakout” within a couple of years. John Bolton and friends will then say, “I told you so” to their critics, though their actions opened the door to Iran’s effort. Israel, and other Middle East powers, notably Saudi Arabia, will feel the military necessity to try to stop the Iranians, and we will see Bolton’s bombs falling soon. The Middle East will be drawn to an all-consuming conflict, one that will inexorably draw United States to war.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not only supports Trump’s decision, but was complicit in releasing “new information” (though it was known for years) to back Trump’s claim that the Iranians were cheating. US officials, including Mattis at Defense and Pompeo at State, said that Iran was not. Netanyahu sees Iran as the ultimate threat to Israel’s existence, and is more than willing to take military action to stop Iran’s nuclear progress. While Israel can bomb alone, to get more comprehensive change they would require US assistance. Netanyahu would, along with Bolton, like to see regime change in Iran, in order to protect Israel’s long-term interests. However, the US has had little luck with regime change: the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan are prime examples of good intentions gone wrong.
Should this happen, a regional war might not be the only consequence. War in the Middle East would inevitably cause an energy crisis in the rest of the world, with petroleum supplies threatened and prices skyrocketing. And the other “major powers” of the world would maneuver to isolate the United States. This might well put Russia and China on the Iranian side (Russia is cooperating with Iran now in Syria and China has helped Iranian missile technology in the past) creating a threat of escalation to a world war.
But the United States, who yesterday had the choice of using the next few years to negotiate a more comprehensive deal with Iran, now is left out. President Trump, whose reputation is based on being the “great negotiator,” is gambling that the world will be forced to accept US sanctions, and will be able to drive Iran back to the table for a “better” deal. The US, who two years ago was the world leader in striving for peace, has now lit the fuse to war, and is daring the world to respond.
Trump has taken many knee-jerk steps to undo actions taken by the previous administration, based only on Trump’s emotional and bigoted disdain for the former President. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement, withdrawal from Trans Pacific agreement, and now withdrawal from the Iran agreement. It’s hard to predict which of these will have the worst effects. One sure-fire effect is that no foreign power will ever pay much attention to agreements made by our President alone without Congressional approval.