On the Cusp
We are on the cusp of the crisis. The forces that have been investigating Donald Trump are converging. Here are the facts.
Monday, the Federal prosecutors in Manhattan executed a search warrant on the homes and office of Michael Cohen, the personal attorney and “fixer” for President Donald Trump. The President’s response was rage. Wednesday night it was reported that some of the information seized included recordings of Cohen’s conversations. These MAY include conversations about paying for silence about Trump’s behavior, and perhaps even conversations with Trump himself.
The searches set off a firestorm of Fox News fueled debate. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz, and hired/not hired former US Attorney Joe DiGenova have called for the firing of Special Counsel Mueller and Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein. Fox personality Sean Hannity compared the Special Counsel’s office to a Mafia family; DiGenova called former FBI Director James Comey a dirty cop. Gingrich compared Mueller to the Gestopo.
Tuesday, current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan decided not to run for his Congressional seat. Ryan, whose voice has been continually absent from the Trump debate, is now a lame duck, and the battle begins in the Republican House caucus for the spoils of leadership. They are focusing on their internal issues, and unlikely to take up the burden of a Constitutional crisis.
Wednesday, former FBI Director James Comey’s book was “leaked” out a week prior to publication. Comey compared the Trump organization to an organized crime family, La Cosa Nostra, and claimed that the President’s biggest concern about Russian involvement in the 2016 election was whether there was any proof of Trump’s actions with prostitutes in a Moscow hotel.
The negotiations between the Special Counsel’s office and President Trump’s attorneys over testimony have fallen apart: there will be no voluntary questioning. Mueller will have to decide whether to proceed on with his investigation without Trump’s testimony, or try to force Trump’s answers by issuing a grand jury subpoena. Should he compel testimony through subpoena a court battle is sure to ensue. Trump could simply refuse to go: US Marshals are not likely to fight off the Secret Service to force Trump into court.
If Trump does go to court, he may well invoke the Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. What a few months ago seemed unthinkable, a President taking the Fifth, now seems a plausible solution. Undoubtedly the Fox News propaganda machine would back the move as a reasonable response to an “unfair and Gestopo-like” investigation.
And late Wednesday night, the Trump White House leaked the upcoming Presidential pardon of Scooter Libby. Libby was Vice President Cheney’s Chief of Staff, convicted of obstructing justice and lying to the FBI. It is no coincidence that those charges are similar to ones faced by Mike Flynn and others from the Trump White House. It is a not so subtle signal: keep your mouth shut and maybe you too can get a Presidential “get out of jail free card.”
And finally, word has come out that the Mueller Investigation is preparing to release its first (of several) report on the conduct of the President. This is in lieu of actually indicting a sitting President, an action that may or may not be Constitutional, but would violate current Department of Justice policy. This first one would highlight the President’s actions in obstructing justice, and could serve as potential impeachment charges.
It’s Thursday morning. Here’s what may happen next.
The next step in the Mueller investigation will be into Trump’s inner circle. Michael Cohen was the first. Ivanka, Jared Kushner and Donald Jr are up next. While Trump already made it clear that he will throw Cohen to the wolves by stating, “I don’t know anything about the Stormy Daniels contract” on Air Force One, his children might, and I do mean might, be a different matter.
How can Trump stop the investigation? He could try to directly fire Robert Mueller, an action of dubious Constitutionality. This would cause a court battle, culminating in the Supreme Court, and likely would result in Mueller remaining in office. But it would take time, time to continue to build the Fox News propaganda.
He could fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions and replace him. The replacement would not be recused from the Russia investigation, and could take direct charge of Mueller. The new Attorney General could then stall, restrict, or fire Mueller. This is the probable reason why EPA Director Scott Pruitt is allowed to remain in office despite his continual corrupt activity. Pruitt, former Attorney General of Oklahoma, was Senate confirmed for the EPA, and could be placed in the Attorney General’s job as a temporary appointment without needing additional confirmation.
Trump could order the Department of Justice to rescind the Special Counsel regulations, simply wiping the Mueller investigation from existence. This could trigger a Congressional action to protect Mueller, though House Republicans are still firmly behind the President. Mueller could also simply turn the investigation over to others in the Department.
Or, he could fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, ostensibly because he signed off on the Cohen search warrants. Trump would move to the next in line who could throttle or fire Mueller. The problem: this could cause a “Saturday Night Massacre” scenario reminiscent of Nixon, as those in line for the job refuse to act against Mueller and perhaps it could trigger Congressional action to protect Mueller.
Or President Trump could do nothing, allowing the investigation to proceed. He could allow indictments to be handed down against Cohen, and ultimately his children. He could “dangle” pardons to keep everyone in line. And he can depend on the Congress to continue to ignore his behavior.
The Republican National Committee is “all-in” behind President Trump, even publishing a webpage defaming James Comey. Members of Congress continue to act as Trump’s first line of defense.
So again, we depend on the sense of civic duty of the Republicans in the Congress. At what point will they realize that the actions of President Trump and those surrounding him have brought the nation into disrepute, and threaten the foundations of our democracy? They clearly haven’t yet.
We are on the cusp of the crisis. It may happen today, it may happen in a month. But it’s happening.
