Musical Chairs
The game has begun. It started a few weeks ago, when the fallout from the lack of security clearances at the White House finally caught up with the Trump Administration. Robert Porter, the Staff Secretary, heard the music stop, and found that he had no place to sit without a security clearance. Allegations of abuse against two wives, already known to the White House Counsel (and presumably the Chief of Staff John Kelly as well) leaked out to the public. Mr. Porter needed to exit the game.
Next came White House Communication Director Hope Hicks. After her meeting with the Mueller Investigation, and then a House Committee hearing where she admitted to telling “white lies” for the President, it was time for her to lose a place.
Then the President’s body man, John McEntee was up. It seems he has a gambling problem.
But the bigger chairs were opening up too. Gary Cohn, Chief Economics Advisor ignored on tariff policy, it was time for him to go. And now Rex Tillerson, long abused Secretary of State, has been unceremoniously shown the door (through a tweet.) CIA Director Mike Pompeo was tapped to fill his place.
Last night, conservative columnist Bill Kristol posted the following:
This is RUMINT, but pretty credible RUMINT: Trump preparing to fire Sessions, name Pruitt Acting AG (which he can be since he already holds a Senate confirmed position), and Pruitt fires Mueller. And McMaster likely to be replaced by Bolton. Shulkin also on way out, FWIW.
RUMINT = Rumored Intelligence
FWIW – for what it’s worth.
Under the “Vacancy Reform Act of 1998” the President of the United States has multiple choices to fill a vacant position. One choice is to follow the Constitutional pattern: nominate someone for the job, then wait for Senate hearings and a confirmation vote. This fills the position “permanently.” In the meantime, the normal line of succession within the agency would be followed. For example: Trump fires Sessions, nominates someone else for the job, and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein acts as Attorney General until the appointment is confirmed.
The second method is for the President to appoint an “acting” person to the position, then nominate someone else for the “permanent appointment.” The “acting” person must have already passed Senate muster for another job, may only serve 210 days, and cannot be the nominee for the position. In this scenario: Trump fires Sessions, orders Tom Pruitt from EPA to run both the EPA and be Acting Attorney General, then at the President’s leisure, nominates someone to the Attorney General job.
This has already been done with the Consumer and Finance Protection Bureau. Richard Cordray, now a candidate for Governor of Ohio, resigned as Director. Mick Mulvaney, Director of Office of Management and Budget, was further detailed as acting Director of CCFB (ostensibly to dismantle the agency, though Mulvaney denies it.)
The Mueller investigation seems to be tightening around the President and his family. With increasing evidence that the President was directly effected by US sanctions against Russia in 2014 and tried to bargain them away during the election, and damning information on the conflicts of interest Jared Kushner has between his actions as a Senior Counsel to the President and begging for investments in his New York real estate disasters; it actually seems inevitable that Trump would look for a way to lash back at the Mueller team. Here’s how it may go.
Step One
The Department of Justice has just wrapped up its investigation of former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe. A recommendation has been made that McCabe, who has less than a week until he can officially retire, be fired from he Bureau (thus preventing him from collecting his pension.) The final say on what happens to McCabe is in the hands of Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Whatever Sessions does: fire McCabe or allow McCabe to keep his pension; could be the final grounds for dismissal that Trump is looking for.
Step Two
Trump fires Sessions (probably by an early morning tweet) and appoints Pruitt (former Attorney General of Oklahoma) to the job of Acting Attorney General. This puts the Mueller Investigation in a difficult position. Muller currently acts under the supervision of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, after Sessions recused himself from all Russia related matters. Pruitt is not recused, and could take charge of the Mueller team. In that capacity, he could limit the scope of investigation and indictments, or fire Mueller himself.
Step Three
Even if Mueller is not fired, it is unlikely that he can bring indictments against a serving President. (Current Justice Department policy opposes this, if Mueller were to bring such an indictment, it would be possible grounds for dismissal.) Mueller can make recommendations and reports (including recommendations for impeachment to a Congressional committee) as well as bring charges, but the recommendations and reports are made to the (Acting) Attorney General, who then determines what happens to them (go public, for example) from there. Since Pruitt would be in charge, Mueller would have to submit to him, and Pruitt could withhold the entire report.
Step Four
All is not lost. If Mueller is fired, the investigations will revert back to the FBI, where Director Chris Wray would be in charge (the same place where this all started with Director Comey.) While the Attorney General would still have overall supervision of the FBI case, charges can still be brought. In addition, a Congressional Committee could subpoena a Mueller or FBI report, forcing it into the public. That of course, would require the Congressional Committee to be willing to do so, in short, be controlled by Democrats. This makes the outcome of the November elections even more important. There is also the unlikely possibility that the current Republican leaders of the House would see a Mueller firing as a “bridge too far” and act (but don’t hold your breath for that.)
And what about National Security Advisor HR McMasters (has too many details for the President), Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (first class trips and expensive doors), the aforementioned Tom Pruitt (first class trips), HUD Secretary Ben Carson (expensive furniture and family on the payroll), and VA Secretary David Shulkin (took wife to European vacation on taxpayer money), and of course, the man who actually tries to ORGANIZE the President, Chief of Staff John Kelly? And of course the clock must be ticking for Jared and Ivanka Trump (too many to number.) Don’t be surprised by any or all of their departures, the music is about to end. The better question is, who will be “the replacements” to sign up for this game of “find your chair, lose your reputation?”
