Where Go the Dreamers?
Tuesday morning the US Government reopens. The ugly standoff of the weekend is over: both sides claim some form of victory. But the absolute losers are the most innocent, the 800,000 “Dreamers.”
The “deal” that reopened the government was little different than the deal on the table before the shutdown. The budget was kicked down the road, until February 8th, when the whole drama will begin again. Off the table is the Childhood Insurance (CHIP) program, now re-authorized for six years. And hidden in the deal were more tax cuts, this time delays to three taxes needed to fund some parts of the Affordable Care Act.
So what did Democrats get for the “Dreamers,” the ultimate reason for the shutdown in the first place? An agreement with Republican Leader Mitch McConnell that he “intends” to bring DACA legislation to the Senate floor for debate and vote. There is NO agreement on a DACA solution in the Senate, NO agreement on House of Representative participation at all, and NO word from the White House on their stand. The Democratic minority played a weak hand; they got a weak deal.
What happens next? There is still a real majority of the Senate and the House of Representatives that want DACA legislation that would grant some form of permanent legal status to the Dreamers, and ultimately US citizenship. The Dreamers do have some political capital, particularly in those Districts that have a significant number of Latino voters. Members running for re-election ignore that significance at their peril.
It is likely that in the next budget snafu, due on Thursday, February 8th, the Senate will put some form of DACA plan forward. And while there is a bipartisan proposal in the House by Congressmen Hurd (R, Texas) and Aguilar (D, California)[1], there is still the dark force of the Freedom Caucus against it, and the strangely silent position of Speaker Paul Ryan.
The outlines of the battle are vague. The Senate may pass a DACA bill as part of the next budget resolution with additions for border security (Trump might call that a “wall”.) Democrats cannot let it get conflated with other immigration changes, that would doom the bill from the start. Then it will fall to the House. Speaker Ryan will not have a “majority of the majority” in favor of such a bill, but he would have a majority of the House (all of the Democrats and many Republicans.)
In order for Ryan to violate the “Hastert Rule” requiring him to have a majority of Republicans in favor, he would need to have political cover. That cover is the President of the United States, who could signal that HE wants that bill passed. Ryan would then be doing the President’s bidding, and could lead the House forward.
Which then brings us to the ultimate question: what is the White House stand? Is it the deal that Trump signaled at least three times (the bill of “love” meeting, the Schumer meetings, and most recently with Joe Manchin)? Or is it the hardline approach of Chief of Staff Kelly, or worse, the near-racist views of Advisor Stephen Miller?
Democrats are faced with a perilous choice. If the President doesn’t signal a stand, then Senate Democrats can’t count on the House. If they can’t count on the House, then they are forced to either close the government once again, or completely fail. And while politically they could fall back on waiting for the next election, it will be too late for Dreamers. The protections they now have expire on March 5th.
The Administration has pursued a policy of relentless deportation of “criminal” immigrants. The conceit is they are deporting “criminals,” leaving the impression that dangerous felons are being removed. The fact: they have defined all illegals as criminals, so all of them are at risk.
Dreamers have registered with the Federal Government in order to gain protections. Now that registration process could be turned against them – the Government knows where they live. They, and Democrats, are dependent on the “mercy” of President Trump. Good luck with that.
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/08/politics/bipartisan-daca-compromise-plan-unveiled/index.html
