The State We’re In
“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” Mr. Trump told reporters at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., where he is spending much of the month on a working vacation. “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”[1] 8/8/17
Yesterday the Washington Post led with a “leaked” Defense Intelligence Agency report that North Korea is “…now making missile-ready nuclear weapons…”[2] This report led to wall-to-wall cable news coverage of the “North Korean Crisis” and President Trump’s statement (above) threatening “fire and fury.” It also led the North Koreans to specifically threaten the US territory of Guam in the Pacific.[3]
It takes five major steps to build a functioning nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. First is to build a nuclear bomb. Second is to build a missile capable of flying over 5000 miles. Third is making the bomb small enough to fit on the top of the missile. Fourth is the guidance system to target the missile, and fifth is to have the missile and warhead survive re-entry into the atmosphere. If the “leaked” information in the Washington Post is accurate, then the North Koreans have managed steps one through three, with four and five to go.
We are in a crisis.
We are staring at military options which all result in incredibly high casualties (see earlier post on Trump World, All Options on the Table), and we are focused on what the Trump Administration may do. This is the ultimate Presidential power, the decision to commit the United States to a path towards a war on a scale not seen since World War II. While Congress has “the power” to declare war, in this age of instant response to ballistic missiles, they may never get the chance. To paraphrase Patrick Henry, the war will actually have begun!
Or are we?
President Trump has known for weeks about this intelligence assessment. The bellicose statements about “fire and fury” didn’t come out until the press got the leak. And this kind of assessment isn’t new, it was five years ago that the same kind of intelligence from the Defense Intelligence Agency (headed by General Michael Flynn) reported:
A new assessment by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm has concluded for the first time, with “moderate confidence,” that North Korea has learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile. The assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has been distributed to senior administration officials and members of Congress, cautions that the weapon’s “reliability will be low…” [4] 4/11/13
It was quickly discounted by other members of the US intelligence community.
We also don’t know how close North Korea is to achieving steps four and five, which means there may be years before they have an actual ICBM capacity. But Presidential aides are saying “it’s the Cuban Missile Crisis.” So, why is this the time, why is the crisis today?
For the first time in months, there is little discussion about “Russia.” The story that would have led the news is about House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes. He was supposedly recused from the Russian investigation after his clumsy attempt to distract it last spring, but instead sent two committee staffers on a mission to London to talk to Christopher Steele of the famous “Steele Dossier.” Neither Committee Democrats, nor Republicans, nor the temporary Chairman of the committee Mike Conaway were informed.[5]
After the revelation that Special Counsel Mueller empaneled a Grand Jury in Washington, D.C last week, with the continuing “twitter” rumors on impending indictments both from Mueller and New York Attorney General Schniederman, and with the failing support of President Trump in national polls, the question needs to be asked: is this necessary?
We know the long-term crisis with North Korea is real, what we don’t know is if it is immediate, or is the heat being artificially generated?
Would the Trump Administration “gin-up” a world crisis to change the subject? How far would they go to show “Presidential Determination?” They’ve gone to great lengths to change the subject before, is this the ultimate distraction? With the lack of trust in both the intent and the ability of the President, these are the questions. This is the state we’re in.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/world/asia/north-korea-un-sanctions-nuclear-missile-united-nations.html
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?utm_term=.a79bf6a27d4f
[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/09/why-north-korea-threatened-guam-the-tiny-u-s-territory-with-big-military-power/?utm_term=.5c75c79dc39b
[4] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?pagewanted=all
[5] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/07/donald-trump-russia-dossier-christopher-steele-devin-nunes
