Going to the Mattresses (So What Could Trump Do, Part II)

Going to the Mattresses

(So What Could Trump Do, Part II)

No, no, no! No more! Not this time, consiglieri. No more meetings, no more discussions, no more Sollozzo tricks. You give ’em one message: I want Sollozzo. If not, it’s all-out war: we go to the mattresses.

Sonny Corelone speaking to Tom Hagen in The Godfather

Sean Spicer is out as Director of Communications: Anthony Scarmucci is in. Marc Kasowicz is “taking a reduced role” as the President’s Attorney for the Russia Investigation: Ty Cobb is in. Attorney General Sessions has been “disloyal” to the President by recusing himself from the Russian investigation. The President’s legal team is “looking into” Special Counsel Mueller’s team for conflicts and for exceeding the “bounds” of the Special Counsel’s investigation. They also are researching what the President’s power to pardon entails.

It looks like the President is getting ready to “go to the mattresses.” Spicer, a long time part of the Republican establishment and friend of Chief of Staff Reince Priebus is leaving his White House position as Press Secretary and Director of Communications. His replacement is the ultimate “Trump loyalist”, Anthony Scarmucci, Wall Street entrepreneur. Scarmucci’s first words are: “I love the President. I am serving the President, the President’s agenda.” Priebus days may well be numbered as well.

Going to the mattresses: the President is getting ready to go to war over the Russia investigation. He’s not looking for expertise in issues, he’s really not interested in his ongoing issues agenda: he’s looking for loyalists who will stick with him through the fight that is about to begin. Let’s look into the crystal ball to see what may occur.

Trump would like to fire Sessions, not for disloyalty, but because Session’s recusal has rendered him unable to defend Trump. If Trump could fire Sessions, and appoint a new Attorney General who is clear of Russian connections, he would. Then he could order that Attorney General to fire Special Counsel Mueller. However, the US Senate would have to approve that appointment, and it seems unlikely that they would do so if the appointee wouldn’t commit to keeping Mueller.

So Sessions, stays in the job. Trump will wait until the Special Counsel investigation gets into the Trump business finances, then claim Mueller is out of bounds (and bring out any “dirt” his legal team has found.) Rod Rosenstein, Deputy Attorney General, is ordered to fire Mueller, and refuses. The next in line, the Solicitor General and the Associate Attorney General, also refuse, and all three are fired. The next in order is Dana Boente, US Attorney of the Eastern District of Virginia, and late acting Attorney General. He becomes acting Deputy Attorney General, fires Mueller, then heads back to Alexandria.

The Mueller investigation returns to the FBI, and the Special Counsel’s team goes back into private practice. Now it’s up to the Department of Justice to bring charges brought by the FBI, a much less likely prospect.

Meanwhile the Congressional committees are up in arms, claiming that Trump is obstructing justice. Trump uses Twitter to rouse his base, trying to keep the Republicans in line. Maybe that works, maybe not. Meanwhile the committees try to lever Manafort, Flynn, Don Junior and Jared Kushner to testify: trading immunity for their incriminating statements. The President “double-jumps” the committees by granting all of them pardons, telling the American people; “…this is the only way to end the witch hunt and get on with Making America Great Again.” Again, maybe this works, maybe not. If both of these moves work though, the President is clear until the elections of 2018.

Come 2018, if Democrats gain a majority in the House, impeachment would definitely be in the air. Should the House pass a bill of impeachment, it goes to the Senate. Two-thirds must agree to remove the President. If Republicans stay “in-line” then Trump survives, if they determine that he must go, then he resigns (saving the country the “agony” of an impeachment trial, and probably with an agreement with Pence that he receives a Presidential pardon.)

This strategy achieves several objectives for the Trump team. First, it will take years, if ever, for the final act of Presidential removal to occur. It delays, fulfilling the daily goal of “survive til tomorrow.” And, if Trump is able to hold his base, he may well be able to hold just enough of the Republican members of Congress to run the table and stay until 2020.

The question will ultimately fall to the Republican leaders of the Congress.   If they see that the conservative agenda items they have been dreaming about since 2008 are no longer an option, they may decide to cut Trump lose and try again with a Pence Presidency. Or, and one would hope, if they see that there is evidence of Trump’s illegal acts, perhaps they will stand up and do what’s right for the country for the right reason. They will show the courage of being more than just loyal to the President or the party, but loyal to the Constitution and the United States of America.