While Rome Burns
North Korea launched its first Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) this weekend. For the first time, they have the ability to directly strike at the United States, and most targets on the Pacific Rim. North Korea not only launched this missile after repeated warnings from the United States to cease, they then dropped it into an exclusive Japanese economic zone of the Sea of Japan.
While the North Koreans have not shown they have the capability of creating a nuclear warhead to cap their ICBM, it really seems to be only a matter of time. That the Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un, will control the ultimate weaponry available is the most destabilizing issue in the world today.
President Trump has pressed the Chinese, North Korea’s major trading partner and lifeline to the world, to somehow rein in Kim Jong-un. Trump anticipated that he would be able to convince President Xi Jinping that trade with the United States is worth the rigors of trying to control North Korea.
US Admiral (retired) James Stavridis made it clear why the Chinese are reluctant to become involved in restraining North Korea. He sees China as taking the “long view.” If China intervenes, precipitating the fall of Kim Jong-un, it could result in a unified Korean peninsula. Like the union of Germany after the fall of the Soviet Union, China sees a unified Korea as a huge economic rival on its own backdoor. The threat of that is great enough, that China is willing to risk Kim’s “twisting the tail” of the nuclear threat.
http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/what-are-us-options-for-dealing-with-north-korea-983666243827
Or, perhaps China is looking for a trade. China and the United States are involved in a territorial dispute over the South China Sea. The Chinese are expanding and militarizing small coral islands there, in order to claim territorial sovereignty over the entire area. The United States has disputed this claim, performing “Freedom of Navigation” exercises by sailing within twelve miles of the island of Triton last week. (http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/02/politics/us-navy-south-china-sea/index.html)
The deal might be, China gets what it wants (control of the South China Sea) in return for reining in North Korea. The problem: the United States is unwilling to cede control of this main sea lane to China, and at the same time is unable to tolerate North Korean threats to South Korea, Japan, and of course, the US itself. It is the United States that “needs” the deal, more than China does.
Meanwhile the US is considering a military option. This would involve targeted strikes against both the missile and nuclear facilities in North Korea. It would certainly trigger a North Korean attack against South Korea, where 38,000 US troops are stationed, as well as millions of South Korean citizens, and ultimately a renewed Korean War.
The other option is status-quo, allowing the North Koreans to continue their nuclear/missile development. Once they have reached the capacity for a nuclear attack on the US (they already may be able to deliver one on Japan and US bases in the Pacific, and certainly on South Korea) the stakes will be extremely high. The US is continuing testing and improvement of the anti-ballistic missile system, but there is no “guaranteed 100%” system.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/30/politics/pentagon-missile-test-north-korea-iran/index.html
While the US is entranced with the spectacle of the Trump Administration, and we all wait for the next “shoe to drop” in the Russia controversy, North Korea is a problem that won’t go away. Hopefully President Trump and the rest of the government aren’t “fiddling” while Rome burns.
Nicely written, Mr. D.