The President Trump Model
“As you are all aware, he’s the best negotiator.” – Sarah Huckabee Sanders – 5/16/18
Last night, the “Big Button” strategy of US negotiations with North Korea took a hit. The North Koreans fell back to their older model of negotiating, changing the prerequisites for talks at the last minute. The North Korean regime made it extremely clear that they were unhappy with current US/South Korean joint military exercises. And, in response to National Security Advisor John Bolton’s comments on Sunday news shows, they also made it clear they would NOT give up their nuclear arsenal.
From the North Korean perspective it’s not so surprising that Bolton’s description of disarmament as the “Libya Model” doesn’t appeal to them. Muamar Gadafhi, the dictatorial leader of Libya, allowed the NATO powers to remove chemical and nuclear weapons in return for reducing economic sanctions on his nation. Within two years, Gadafhi was overthrown (with US assistance) and shot dead on the side of a road.
To be clear, the North Koreans have not cancelled the summit, scheduled on June 12 in Singapore. They did cancel today’s meeting with South Korea’s Prime Minister Moon, and are threatening the Singapore meeting. So what happens next?
President Trump has allowed expectations for this summit to grow sky high. Chants of “NOBEL, NOBEL” for the Nobel Peace Prize were at his rallies, and he has said the “aw shucks – just doing my job” line when asked about the prize by the press. He has even used the summit to push off his decision about whether to voluntarily testify to Special Counsel Mueller. Both Trump and the North Koreans know he is fully vested in having the summit go through.
In a lawn interview in front of the White House, Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said that the North Korean move was “expected.” She claims that there is a new model of negotiating, the “President Trump Model,” and that she anticipates that the summit will go through. Trump himself has stated that if he doesn’t get what he wants at the summit, he will, respectfully, walk away from the table.
It is hard to imagine there is an incentive, short of all-out war, that would induce North Korea’s President Kim to give up his nuclear weapons. Not only did those missiles give him the status to gain a summit with the President of the United States, but they also are the result of tremendous sacrifice by the North Korean people. They have endured starvation and deprivation due to economic sanctions and the Kim regime’s willingness to sacrifice them at the nuclear altar. Even the offer of a full US withdrawal from the Korean peninsula (something that would be regarded as the ultimate betrayal by our ally, South Korea) probably isn’t enough to get the North to give up the bomb.
Given that, what are we negotiating about? The United States policy is that North Korea will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Now that they have them, what can we do? National Security Advisor Bolton would have us negotiate, fail, and then begin an economic sanctions process. Should that process fail, and it will; he would have us go to war. His argument: better to fight North Korea at a time and place of our choosing, rather than risk an unexpected nuclear missile launch against the US or allies. The conflict is that a war with North Korea, whether we choose it or not, will always now entail the risk of nuclear-tipped missile attack.
The alternative is to try to bring North Korea into the “community” of nations. Talks with South Korea, an economic powerhouse, might help achieve that aim. A stronger economic relationship between the two Koreas might give the North an incentive to hold their bombs, and build their nation.
Should the summit occur, it will be interesting if that view ever gets on the table. If that is what the “President Trump Model” means, then by all means, good luck. But it seems more likely that the summit is simply an exercise in persuasion for US citizens, to show that the Trump Administration tried to avoid war, and now it’s time to “gear up.” John Bolton could then have his new Korean War.
With regard to Korea, Trump has proven that is not the best negotiator, nor is he a good negotiator, nor an average one. He sucks at it. A basic rule in negotiating is, do not build up peoples’ expectations, avoid making or implying promises that you might not be able to keep. Promise less, deliver more. Trump has promised or implied that a “deal” is imminent. By doing so, he has empowered North Korea to increase its demands, since Kim knows Trump will not want to return from Singapore empty handed. Headlines will be, “The Great Dealmaker fails to make a Deal”. Of course, if Trump intended this effort to fail, as a pretext to starting a war, then we are in deep doodoo. Should we ask our Washingtom elected officials to find a way to require that they approve a formal Declaration of War before Trump acts alone?
I hope that Congress will take back their authority to wage war. It began with the Gulf of Tonkin resolution in 1964 when they were fooled by Johnson and it’s been going on ever since. Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are all executive wars waged under the 9-11 legislation. Congress: declare war or not – don’t pass the buck!