The Button Strategy
The chants in Michigan went on for a while – “NOBEL, NOBEL, NOBEL!” President Trump’s modest answer, “I’m just doing my job.”
Will Donald Trump be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his actions in North Korea? Probably not, but it’s hard not to give him some credit for the changes in Kim Jong-Un’s behavior. Did Trump’s strategy, including the “Rocket Man” and “Bigger Button” tweets, push Kim to the negotiating table?
It might have.
When a madman tries to burn your neighborhood, with all of the homes threatened; the fact you don’t like you neighbor won’t stop you from working together to stop the madman. South Korean President Moon Jae-in was well aware of the ultimate truth about the next Korean war. The battles would be fought in the most highly populated parts of his country, millions of people would be killed, and the nation that has been an economic and political success story since 1953 would be utterly devastated.
Kim Jong-Un of North Korea is also aware of what a war with the United States would cause. While there is much less economic infrastructure in North Korea to destroy and Kim is less concerned about civilian casualties, if the US waged war one of the primary goals would be the end of the Kim regime. Look at Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Gaddafi in Libya to see Kim’s prospective fate.
So while Moon and Kim are neighbors who don’t like each other, Trump served as the raging madman threatening them both. Perhaps this pushed them both to the negotiating table. But there are alternative reasons the two might have reached across the border.
Kim and North Korea represent the ultimate threat to South Korea. President Moon has followed a well thought out strategy, first engaging Kim in participating in the Olympic Winter Games, then pursuing greater contacts culminating in their meeting at the “Peace House” on the demilitarized zone. If South and North Korea can develop economic commitments, they are less likely to try to destroy each other.
Kim has also followed a strategy, working to build a nuclear arsenal, now complete; and developing missile delivery systems that can threaten beyond the region to the world. He worked to make himself, “a member of the nuclear club” (US, Russia, UK, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan.) Now he (and therefore his country) is recognized as a major world player, and gets to meet man-to-man with the President of the United States.
It was easy for Kim to “give up” nuclear and missile testing: the program is ready to go, “operational,” and there is no longer a need. He got what he wanted, now he wants to negotiate for economic benefits as an “equal.” President Trump has accepted that equal standing, and is expected to agree to meet with Kim on Kim’s “turf,” back at the Demilitarized Zone.
Negotiation is better than war. So whatever the mechanisms that brought North Korea to the table, it beats dropping missiles on Seoul, Tokyo, San Francisco, or Pyongyang. Whether this was some well thought out strategy by Trump or simply the innate knowledge of one bully for another, the “madman US President” plan deserves credit for getting there.
What happens next is questionable. The United States has negotiated with North Korea several times, each time the North has promised to stop nuclear progress. They simply lied, and continued to build and develop their program. Now that Kim has the “bomb” and a delivery system, it’s unlikely he’ll give them up for anything. The United States is trying to negotiate for a “denuclearized” Korean peninsula. It’s difficult to see a “carrot” that they can offer North Korea to give up their bombs. And of course, “the stick” would mean nuclear war.
And South Korea (not given a seat at the table with Kim and Trump yet) has the world’s fourteenth strongest economy. Much as West German success contrasted with East German privation, South Korea is thriving as North Koreans continue to literally starve. The South has a lot to offer the North.
There is a possibility for progress, though it may only come at the cost of accepting a nuclear North Korea. South Korea may be willing to take that chance, but it’s unlikely the Trump Administration will accept any outcome short of nuclear neutering.
So we are a long way from the Nobel Peace Prize. Likely, we are closer to nuclear war.
