Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! …Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death! – Patrick Henry to the Virginia House of Burgesses, March 23, 1775
Actually Begun
It’s October 6th, thirty days before election day. But, of course, in our modern era, “the war is actually begun!!”. Seven states are already voting. Here in Ohio, voter registration ends tomorrow, and early voting starts Tuesday (voting information). It’s estimated that at least 40% of votes will be cast before November 5th. (And it’s not that old Democratic joke: “Vote early and vote often.”) This year, both campaigns are encouraging early voting. It’s not just to make sure that “their” voters actually cast a ballot. It’s a “money” thing. When a vote is cast, that fact is immediately registered on the voter list (that they voted, not how they voted). Campaigns can stop campaigning to those voters, using the resources directly to those who have not voted.
Want to help your candidate? Vote early, by mail or in-person, and get it over with. It’s kind of like Christmas shopping. Sure, you can be the person on Christmas Eve, desperately waiting in line for the last minute bargains. But there’s always that issue, the “perfect gift” is out-of-stock. Election day voting is “fun”. There’s lines and excitement; the feeling of being part of the great American experiment in real-time. But there’s always the issues; car, weather, job; all things that might get in the way of casting your ballot. So make the campaigns happy, vote early (not often).
Minute-by-Minute
Back in August, at the Democratic Convention, there was a new spirit in the Democratic Party. Harris was uplifting: instead of “just” saving Democracy, she was offering a new vision beyond “We are not going back”. And that’s still true. But, now a month later, there is also a growing dread. After everything thrown at the Trump campaign, after all the minute-by-minute lying Trump and Vance have done; it’s still an extremely narrow election.
Part of that is also “theatre”. The two major polling averages, Real Clear Politics and 538; use a greater number of “Red” polls, done with a bias towards the Republican side. Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg lists twenty-seven polls that are “red-leaning”, including:
Daily Mail, Cygnal, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Napolitan Institute, Public Opinion Strategies, Rasmussen, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, and (of course) the Wall Street Journal.
More “red” polls, more “redder” numbers in the average. No matter how well the Harris/Walz ticket does, the average still slants “red”. Today, Real Clear Politics averages has Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%. But in the swing states, where the Electoral College will be determined, it’s tied 48% to 48%. And that’s the “slanted” version.
Stressors
So why all the mumbling and jumbling of numbers? Because we have reached that point in the election, where the beginning is long ago, and the end too far away. For those who are attuned, the adrenalin tap has been on full (like Trump’s giant water valve) for two months. All of the chemical stress takes a toll, and it’s easy to start to despair. And those damn numbers don’t help. So add a grain of salt (or a bag) to the flood of polling data: remember they are “leaned” in a direction. (For those of you who are MSNBC fans, and struggle with Steve Kornacki who seems to always have “bad” news – remember he’s using these same numbers. As my programmer friends used to say, “Garbage in, Garbage out”).
Want to unstress? Do something. Put up a sign, knock on some doors; heaven forbid, have a conversation with your neighbor (probably not the one with the F**K Biden flag still flying). Do what you can to support your candidate. Write a letter, or an essay (or guest write one here on Our America). Action always reliefs stress. And the most important thing you can do, is vote.
To paraphrase Patrick Henry:
“I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me the ballot, or give me death!”
