Tradecraft
It’s amazing tradecraft. No one’s admitting anything, but Mossad, the Israeli Intelligence Agency, was able to sabotage the pagers used for communication by Hezbollah, the terrorist group that holds sway in Lebanon. Thousands of them exploded at 3:30 pm on the belts and in the hands and pockets of Hezbollah operatives yesterday, killing 8 (and 1 child) and injuring more 2800. The “mini-explosions” occurred in offices, homes, stores, cars, and on the streets. They rocked Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and sent ambulances screaming all over town.
And why did Hezbollah issue pagers to it’s operative? Because the leadership was convinced that Mossad was tracking their cell phones, and wanted private communications. The “old school” technology of pagers isn’t as traceable as modern phones. So Hezbollah made a mass purchase of the devices from a company called Apollo Gold in Taiwan, with the actual pagers manufactured under license in Hungary. Somewhere in that supply train, Mossad managed to secret explosive and a trigger into each of the pagers.
In the past, Mossad was able to get exploding cell phones in the hands of individual Hamas and Hezbollah members, but this attack was on a massive scale. And while the death count was relatively low, the explosive wounds were severe, removing those operatives from the “battlefield” for an extending period of time, and putting a huge burden on the Lebanese health services. With an estimated 40,000 fighters, the pager attack made a major dent in Hezbollah effectiveness.
Tit for Tat
It’s the kind of long-term, highly technical operation that Mossad specializes in. And it’s being seen as a great victory for the Israeli government. As the destruction of Hamas in Gaza winds down and ceasefire talks remain stalled, Hezbollah has been putting increased pressure on the Israeli north. Rocket attacks killed dozens of Israeli civilians. The terrorist group has as many as 150,000 rockets aimed at the country. While Hamas in Gaza was relatively “low tech”, Hezbollah is well supported by Iran, and represents a serious threat to Israel.
But, this is not a “tit-for-tat” response to Hezbollah. It is a dramatic escalation of the “northern front” battle, one that seems designed to inflame conflict there. Meanwhile, the Israeli government is “hellbent” to destroy every last vestige of Hamas in Gaza. It seems like they will level the region, with little regard for the “collateral damage” in civilian destruction and death. So, as Israel wraps up its destruction of Hamas (and much of Gaza in the process), they are literally picking a larger fight with Hezbollah in the north.
A full-on war with Hezbollah, a terrorist group and non-state actor, will certainly draw in the nation-states of Lebanon and Syria, all backed by Iran. It is the opening to a generalized war in the Middle East. It’s hard to see any other Israeli goal for such a broad attack.
Biblical Right
Perhaps, that’s exactly what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants. Any ceasefire with Hamas would likely include a recognition of the United States’ goal of a “two-state solution”, requiring a sovereign Palestinian state. And the forces that maintain Netanyahu in power aren’t interested in a Palestinian state.
They are interested in the land that the Palestinian state would occupy, seeing it as a “reasonable” expansion of the state of Israel, mandated by Biblical history. But the only way to really achieve that goal, is to change the entire static map of the region, established after the 1967 War. That’s when Israel conquered the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank region. To “rearrange the table” again will require a similar upheaval.
War and Politics
And in a more practical political matter, continuing war seems to be the path for Netanyahu to maintain office. While his political future seemed dark just a few months ago, current polling shows his coalition would lose some seats but maintain control of the government in an election. And Netanyahu needs to stay in power. Once removed, he would face legal sanctions and possible jail time. So he has every reason to continue a war in the Middle East.
President Biden has tried to pressure the Netanyahu government to a ceasefire agreement, but clearly the Israeli Prime Minister is willing to gamble on US politics. A Trump victory in November would put him in a much better position, a Harris victory wouldn’t make things any worse than they are now. So politically, Netanyahu is better off fighting until November. If there aren’t enough Hamas left to fight in Gaza, then why not raise the stakes with Hezbollah? Worst case scenario, a full-on Middle East War, and the opportunity to redraw the maps.
But there is a cost: the soldiers and civilians on all sides will pay the ultimate price.
Update – late Wednesday morning – more devices exploding in Lebanon. Updated casualty report – 12 dead over 3000 injured. Question- why would a Hezbollah member still be carrying their pager today??? Or late reports – maybe walkie-talkies??
Hamas/Israel War
- Bombs in Your Pocket 9/18/24
- Political Survival 7/31/24
- The Gaza Reservation 4/7/24
- Vengeance is Mine 12/27/23
- There is No Peace 12/4/23
- Israel, Democrats, and 2024 11/19/23
- Zero State Solution 11/8/23
- Credible Sources 10/31/23
- Fog of War 10/20/23
- Truth of the Matter 10/17/23
- Updates and Sadness 10/12/23
- Deserve to Die 10/10/23
