A Russian Fairy Tale
NOTE: There are emerging facts that point in the direction that this story is headed, but to be clear – this is yet a fantasy, not fact.
Yesterday it was revealed that seven states were officially “hacked” by the Russian government during the 2016 election. Alaska, Arizona, California, Illinois, Wisconsin, Florida and Texas were all compromised according to the US Intelligence community. Also according to the intelligence community, they were never told.
Months ago it was announced that possibly thirty-eight, and later more definitely twenty-one states were attacked by Russian hackers. Some were told, some not.
Like the Equifax hack with 143 million effected, the Office of Personnel Management hack of 14 million government employees and families, and the one of the biggest hacks, the Adult Friend Finder hack of 412 million: we really have no idea what happened to the information that was hacked. We take precautions, credit checks and identity protection. With Adult Friend Finder, those involved hope their significant other doesn’t find out. But unless our identity is actually stolen, or our credit falls apart without our knowledge, or those “cute” pictures come out, we just don’t know what happens to the data.
So the drip-drip-drip of information about the real Russian assault on the American electoral system continues. Maybe thirty-eight, probably twenty-one, for sure seven: the real answer is we don’t know what the extent of the Russian manipulation was. And like those other hacks, we don’t know what the Russians did, how far they got, and what they were able to change.
In addition, many non-federal government agencies, including voting agencies, are using Kaspersky computer protection software. Kaspersky: software produced by a Russian company under influence of the Russian government. Those “protected” computers might not need to be “hacked;” the key to the backdoor would already be in the Russian government’s hand.
It is disingenuous for Republican political operatives to say that the Russian social media attack didn’t effect the outcome of the election, it is even more disingenuous to say that attacks on the American voting system “…DID NOT ALTER A SINGLE VOTE.” We don’t know that, and neither do they.
Let’s suppose there was definitive proof that the Russians had manipulated American vote counting. (There is evidence for this, see the statistical studies done by Mike Farb www.unhackthevote.com .) What if the United States intelligence agencies were able to pinpoint successful attacks on just three states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania; the three states where a small change would have altered the outcome of the electoral vote, changing the Presidency.
Would they tell us? Would we ever know?
I don’t think so, and to quote one of Marco Rubio’s favorite phrases, “let me tell you why.”
First:
The bedrock of the American system is the invulnerability of our vote. One citizen, one vote: it is the basis of our democracy. If it was shown that the system was altered, that we couldn’t be sure of any electoral outcome, then the whole system of American government would be at risk.
If the Russian goal is to disrupt our government, damage our reputation, and tarnish the American image as a “shining democracy,” what better way to do it? If the American intelligence community was faced with the choice of admitting that kind of Russian success, or quietly fixing the problem without revealing it to the American people, would it be unreasonable to think those dedicated professionals would take the second course?
Second:
The destabilization of announcing that the 2016 elections were broken would be profound. A majority of Americans would call for some kind of fix: impeachment, an extra-constitutional “do-over” or some other repair. But a significant minority of Americans would see this as “fake news” and an attack on the “legitimate” outcome of the 2016 election. The results of that conflict are difficult to foresee, but could include violence leading to permanent damage or destruction of our form of government. This definitely sounds like the “black helicopter” scenario that requires so many to keep their assault rifles.
It would be the ultimate achievement of Vladimir Putin, bring down the US government (as he would say – why not, they are trying to bring me down.)
Would America’s intelligence leaders take the chance? Or would they say, no matter how destabilizing Trump is now, we can survive the knowns of that rather than the unknowns of an America that doesn’t believe in its elections.
Third:
Many would say that in this era of twenty-four hour news and the omnipresent internet, there’s no way this kind of thing could be kept secret. It would leak out. They would be right, but without some kind of government legitimacy, without some formal acknowledgement that it really happened, it would be another “crackpot” theory. Reading all of this now, isn’t that what a lot of you are thinking anyway?
And the advantage of our electoral system: fifty-two agencies controlling states, dozens or more agencies in each state controlling counties; if there is no “trusted source” saying it happened, how would you know? So a vote or two was changed in Bucks County, Pennsylvania; does that mean the whole system was under attack? Licking County, Ohio says their voting system is untouched; but their entire system was ransomed just a few months ago.
How, without government acknowledgement, could anyone “prove” that enough of those little agencies were hacked to alter the election?
Yes this is a fairy tale. Like any good tale it has enough basis in fact to be scary. There is a sad hero (Mike Rogers at the NSA would be my nominee) and a villain (who better than Putin) and a difficult moral choice (truth or the “good” of the nation.)
At least, let’s hope it’s a tale…
