Clown Car
Secretly, many Democrats are taking heart. The polling, as flawed as it’s proven to be, shows at worst a “tie” between Biden and Trump, and perhaps even Biden ahead, especially in the “swing” states. Biden himself is proving to be energetic and powerful; cancelling out the entire “demented and exhausted by age” argument. The Republicans in the House of Representatives are continuing their “clown car” show, with Marjorie Taylor Green threatening to take the entire House back to days of more votes for Speaker. Some of her fellow Republicans are literally quitting in disgust.
With only a single vote majority, the MAGA-Republicans are clearly on the edge of losing it. Just one traffic jam on the DC Beltway, and the honorable Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic Minority Leader, could become the first Black Speaker of the House. As Mark Twain said, “Nothing is safe while Congress is in session”. Republicans finally stopped the bleeding by going on vacation for two weeks.
Cash Poor
The Trump campaign is short on money. Not only are they being out-raised by Biden/Harris ($25 million for a single “Presidential fundraiser” with Biden, Obama, and Clinton tonight), but MAGA campaign money is split. Part of the fund is going to pay for the incredibly large legal fees that the twice-impeached, four time indicted, facing 91 felony counts, ex-President accrued. And then there’s the civil penalties. He caught a break in the New York business trial. His actual fine is $475 million, but he “only” has to put up $175 million bond to appeal the case. And then there’s the E J Carroll case, another $91 million bond, payable if Trump loses on appeal.
Trump completed a full takeover of the Republican National Committee. His daughter-in-law is now the co-chairman. Much of the fundraising money the RNC brings in is now split; first to the Trump campaign, second to the political action committee that pays for Trump’s legal bills, and then and only then, the remainder to the RNC. Republicans “down-ballot” from Trump will find the going tough. The money they might have had for their campaigns instead is going into Trump’s lawyers’ pockets. (Well, maybe: Trump is notorious for “sticking” his lawyers and not paying, ask former “America’s Mayor”, the now disbarred Rudy Giuliani).
Cheap Works
But there are still “cheap” ways to campaign. If you’re on Facebook with any regularity, you’ll know. There is meme after meme: Trump will lower food prices, Trump will “fix” the border, Biden is “under fraud”, and, of course, “Buy a ‘Trump’ Bible”!! It’s insidious – even if you don’t stay for long, the Trump messaging flashes through your brain. And it costs almost nothing; MAGA supporters just share and share and share.
I suspect that’s happening on all versions of social media.
And the Trump campaign is making “lemons into lemonade” in court. Every court date that Trump himself attends, includes a statement going into court, a statement coming out of court, and a statement at lunch break too. The ex-President gets maybe thirty minutes of free, completely controlled national coverage a day. He’d have to pay millions of dollars that he doesn’t have to replicate that exposure.
Free Air – Simple Math
It’s what the Trump campaign’s good at: getting their guy free stuff. It’s how he became President in the first place, with no small contribution from MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Trump got hours of free time, phoning in and talking to Joe and Mika. And while the show offered Clinton the same opportunity, when that didn’t happen, they continued the lopsided Trump exposure.
As Trump himself said, years before he ran for President, the only bad publicity is no publicity. Arguing with Joe Scarborough on the phone in 2015, or calling NBC correspondent Garrett Haake stupid outside of a New York courtroom this week; gets Trump what he needs – visibility.
Trump can’t afford to buy the media; so he uses it. Free time, on Facebook or on CNN moves him along the campaign “trail”, and keeps his nasty, polarizing message in front of the American people. If MSNBC’s giving him so much time, imagine what Fox or OANN is doing.
The only question I have is a simple “math” issue. If the Nation is evenly split, say 45% to 45% between Biden and Trump, then it’s clear the election will be determined by who wins the majority of the remaining ten percent. Those “swing” voters need persuasion, but most of what Trump is doing simply energizes his base. He’s not reaching to the middle, he’s putting gas on the fire of the MAGA millions. I’m sure that’s satisfying to the Trump camp; preaching to the converted. But I don’t see a “calculus” that wins the Presidency.
