Super Tuesday
It’s the week after “Super Tuesday”; supposed to be the “pivotal moment” of the 2024 Primary campaigns. But there were no surprises on “Super Tuesday”, in fact, it really wasn’t quite so “super” at all. The results, with maybe an exception in Vermont, were entirely predictable. In fact, the Democrats made up their mind a long time before “Super-Day”, so it’s no surprise that Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate. And so did the MAGA-Republican Party (not your father’s Republicans, or mine). They are committed to following a whole dark ideology, represented best by the Republican retort to the State of the Union address last Thursday night.
Thirty-eight year old Alabama Senator Katie Britt delivered the speech, ostensibly from her kitchen table (though my kitchen didn’t look that good the day after they built it in 2013). She projected “America” as a dark world, where families huddle around the table, holding hands in prayer, unable to pay their bills and waiting for undocumented migrants (not “illegals” for God’s sake) to break down the doors and do unspeakable things. Well, not unspeakable, Senator Britt was certainly willing to describe in detail the human trafficking and raping of a migrant woman. Too bad that was all in Mexico, not in the United States, and during the Bush Administration.
And while Britt didn’t straight-out say it, she certainly made the point: only Donald Trump can fix this problem. As Saturday Night Live put it: Britt’s America is Hell.
So here we are, like a seventh “Rocky” movie: Biden versus Trump, the sequel. It’s certainly not a “dream race” of American politics, not a Kennedy versus Nixon, or even an Obama versus McCain. Call it what it is: two old men, running again.
No Labels
After Super Tuesday’s results, the leadership of the “No Labels Party” met to decide whether to place a third party Presidential ticket on the ballot in November. After more than a year of claiming that they were open to stepping back, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the answer is, “we’re running”. Millions of dollars, and a running fight, mostly with Democrats, already set that answer into stone.
Here’s the “calculus” for November. The MAGA-Republican Party, as Nikki Haley was quick to discover, is singularly the property of Donald Trump. Sure, Haley won a decent percentage of vote in some states, but those were usually states with “open” primaries, where independents and Democrats could “cross-over” to vote against Trump. But when it came down to just MAGA-Republicans, it was “all Trump, all of the time”.
If they didn’t go for Haley (or any of the other candidates), those MAGA-loyalists aren’t going to vote for a “No Labels” candidate. So don’t expect a third party to make in-roads into the Trump vote.
Compromiser
That’s why Democrats are concerned about “No Labels”. Regardless of all the propaganda about Biden being in the thrall of left-wing Progressives, the President is actually a moderate committed to legislative compromise. Need proof: look at the bipartisan border bill that was poised to pass the Senate and even the House. Biden committed to signing it. It took the direct intervention of Trump to force Republican legislators to turn against the bill that their own conservative member, Senator Langford of Oklahoma, authored.
Democrats are factional: that’s always been the nature of the modern party. True progressives aren’t comfortable with Biden, a “compromiser” (that’s a bad word, I guess, right after being a politician). But here’s the point – those progressives aren’t going to vote for a corporate No Labels candidate.
So where will No Labels get their votes? About thirty percent of Americans are “independent”, not aligned with either party. Typically that’s where Presidential elections are won, or lost. If 30% of the vote is monolithically MAGA-Republican, and 40% is Democratic; No Labels sees “fertile ground” in the remaining voters.
Never Trumpers
A percentage of those voters are ex-Republican “Never Trumpers”, like Ohio’s former Governor John Kasich or Utah’s Senator Mitt Romney. They won’t vote for Trump, but they can’t stomach Joe Biden either. They are likely No Labels voters, and probably didn’t vote for Joe Biden in 2020 either.
And a percentage are far-left progressives. They might vote for a Bernie Sanders’ Democrat, but are likely to choose a Jill Stein-type Green Party selection. They certainly aren’t going to vote for an even more moderate No Labels candidate, though some may choose Biden in order to stop Trump.
So that leaves a “target” group of about 15% – far from the number needed to win. So what is the No Labels party goal? If they can’t win, and if they can’t even make a dent, why are they running?
Who’s the Horse
Before we answer that question, there’s an even more important one. Who is the No Labels candidate? Here, eight months before the election, we know who isn’t a No Labels candidate: Joe Manchin (retiring), Larry Hogan (running for Senate), Chris Sununu (endorsed Trump), Chris Christie (committed to stopping Trump); all turned it down. In fact, this week No Labels publicized that former Republican Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan is seriously considering accepting the nomination. Geoff Duncan for President: that’s going to drive folks to the polls, right? (As a former campaign operative, he’s already got one problem – folks are going to look at “Geoff” and think that’s a silly way to say “Jeff”).
Is No Labels going to impact the 2024 campaign? Are they going to pull votes away from Biden, the “dark conspiracy theory” reason that will get Trump elected? Are millions of votes going to run out and vote for Geoff so that don’t have to vote for Donald or Joe?
Thoroughbreds
To run for President, like running in the Kentucky Derby, you’ve got to have a race horse. Manchin, Hogan, Christie, even Haley would at least by a thoroughbred coming out of the gate. But all of them see No Labels as a losing effort, not just for the Presidency, but for the nation. And, whether you like the spelling of Geoff or not, former Lieutenant Governor Duncan “ain’t no thoroughbred”. In fact, he’s not ever been on a real track.
No Labels can’t find a horse to run in the race, in spite of all the “dark” money flowing into their coffers. And, just like the Derby, no horse means no odds, and no race.
Sorry Geoff, and No Labels. You won’t even be a sideshow in 2024: the year America determines the future of Democracy.
