Elections
Elections are defined by what’s on the ballot. Every four years there are Presidential elections. Not just the Presidency is up for grabs; every seat in the US House of Representatives and a third of the US Senate seats are also on the line. Add that to many state-wide offices, and the Presidential years are always have the biggest turnouts. In 2020, in the middle of the pandemic, with all of the arguments about mail and early balloting, 66.8% of eligible citizens voted (Census). To be clear, that’s 66% of every person who was qualified to vote, not “just” those registered to vote. To paraphrase President Biden, it was a big deal.
Every two years there are “mid-term, off-year” elections. Every House of Representatives member is on the ballot, along with a third of the Senate. And in many states (like Ohio) the Governor is determined as well as other state-wide offices. But without the draw of the Presidential race, usually the “off-year” participation is lower. 46% of eligible voters turned out nationwide in 2022 (Pew), actually the second highest turnout for a mid-term since 1970. The 2018 election (the first after Trump became President) was highest at 48%.
And then there are the “off-off year” elections, the ones held on the odd years. These are usually low turnout affairs, with only a small percentage of voters showing up. Turnouts are targeted: a “hot” school board election, or, in our area, an ugly local Township trustee race. While national turnout numbers for 2021 are unavailable, here’s the comparative numbers for Licking County, where I live. In 2022, there was a 53% turnout of registered voters (not the same as vote-eligible citizens). In 2021 it was 24.6%, and a whopping 76.4% showed up in 2020 (BOE).
Issue One
So here in Ohio, it’s the Sunday before the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. What that means: the day after tomorrow is election day.
But unlike 2021, Ohio can expect a huge, near mid-term type turnout for Tuesday’s vote. It’s driven by Ohio’s Issue One, a state Constitutional Amendment which would guarantee a women’s right to health care, and most notably, to have an abortion through the first twenty weeks of pregnancy.
Ohioans have already had a “preliminary” vote on this issue. In August, voters were asked to raise the winning percentage required to amend the state Constitution from fifty percent plus one, to sixty percent. It was a bold attempt by the anti-abortion folks to raise the bar for this Tuesday’s decision. 39% of registered voters in Ohio showed up in the middle of the summer swelter, and resoundingly rejected the move, by over 57% (SOS).
Turnout
If 39% of registered voters showed up in August for a “technical” issue, what might the turnout be on this Tuesday, when the issue of access to abortion is literally on the line? According to the State’s Secretary of State, more than 700,000 have already voted early by Friday (WKBN). Over three million total votes were counted in August. That’s a big deal too.
Issue One is the abortion amendment. It’s been an ugly campaign, with lots of hyperbole and famous folks (including the Governor and his wife) telling voters what to do. Get past all of the nonsense, and Issue One would re-establish the Roe v Wade standard in Ohio, the law in the United States for fifty years. Simply, women could access abortion up until the 20th week of pregnancy. After that, a physician could still perform an abortion if the life or health of the mother is at stake. Vote Yes in favor of the Amendment, or vote No against the Amendment.
So the “normal” off-off year offices and issues are going to be dramatically impacted by a much higher voter turnout than usual. So what else is on Ohio’s ballot?
What Else?
Issue Two is a law (not a Constitutional amendment) that would legalize recreational marijuana. It is likely to pass, but don’t be surprised to see the state legislature immediately start to tinker with it. Unlike a Constitutional amendment, a law passed by referendum can still be altered by the legislature. Ohio will have to wait as see if recreational marijuana use really does become legal, even if Issue Two passes. Vote Yes for legalization (maybe), or Vote No against it.
Those are the statewide issues. Ohio will either be another “bell weather” state voting to keep abortion legal, or it will be the “outlier”; the first statewide vote to end abortion. Either way, I bet Ohioans vote to legalize marijuana.
Local, Local
In nearby Etna Township there is a hornet’s nest of a Township Trustee race. Four candidates are running for one position. The two serving incumbents aren’t on the ballot. They were both elected as “reform” candidates in 2021, but have been at each other’s throat from the first day in office. Each has an “ally” on the ballot, if one of them wins it would give them a two-vote majority on the Board.
The other two candidates “don’t have a dog in that fight”. Full disclosure: I’ve helped out the Ryan Davis campaign; he’s one of the “other two”. He’s stayed out of most of the ugliness. Ryan’s a “normal” guy, running to make things better. I can’t vote for him (I don’t live in Etna) but I’m sure rooting for him.
Here in the City of Pataskala (and other areas in the local school district) there is a contested race for school board, with four candidates running for two seats. Two of the candidates are incumbents, a third is running a “normal” campaign, and the fourth is an extremist who wants to bring MAGA’ism to our local schools. It seems like the incumbents will maintain their seats: the extremist failed to gain traction in the community. But what “seems” and what “is” can be different – that’s why we go to the polls and vote.
Precinct 4-A
And on my ballot, in Precinct 4-A of the City of Pataskala, there are two local businesses asking to have liquor licenses. Here in Ohio, there’s a separate “regular liquor license” and “Sunday liquor license”. That’s a leftover from the old “Blue Laws” that closed businesses on Sunday, and kept Pataskala “dry” up until the end of the last century. So we get to say Yes or No twice for each one.
Wherever you stand; on women’s choice, on legalization, on who runs the schools or the township, or whether you can buy a beer on Sunday – if you didn’t vote early, go on Tuesday. It’s a “big deal”, even in 2023.
And, it’s the American thing to do.
