Horseshoes
Democrats may be pleased with the election results of 2022, but there is one incontrovertible failure. The Dems failed to maintain a majority in the House. They lost by a little, instead of the expected a lot, but they still lost. What’s the old line: “Almost only matter in horseshoes and hand grenades.” Elections are neither horseshoes nor hand grenades, and Republicans gained nine seats for a 222 total. Democrats lost those nine seats, and have 213 seats. It takes 218 to have a majority, so, by five seats, it’s a Republican House.
What does that mean? The majority gets to “organize” the House. Not only do they have a majority of the “whole” House, but they give themselves a majority on every Committee of the House as well. In every decision making position, Republicans are appointed. They control all of the Chairmanships, and determine almost all of the legislation that gets a vote of the entire chamber. It’s not just that Democrats can’t win a straight Party vote; they can’t even get their legislation to the “floor” to be debated and lose.
The majority Party controls the “calendar”, legislation that comes from Committees, and what gets to the whole body. And all of that “control” is controlled by the leader of the majority Party, the Speaker of the House.
Kevin’s Dream
For the past decade, Republican Kevin McCarthy dreamed of being Speaker. He was so close back in 2014, when Ohioan John Boehner was driven from the gavel by the right-wing Freedom Caucus. Boehner was unable to juggle the far-right with the more moderate right Republican members, and left to smoke his cigarettes, drink his wine, and become a spokesperson for legal marijuana.
And with Boehner leaving, McCarthy thought his time had come. Sure there was a more moderate Congressman from Wisconsin, Paul Ryan, former Vice Presidential candidate in 2012. But McCarthy had more “friends” on the right. He was closer to the Freedom Caucus members than Ryan, and hoped to parlay that into his “dream” job.
But then he opened his mouth, and the truth poured out. McCarthy publicly explained that the reason for the multiple committees and $7 million investigation of Benghazi was to discredit Hillary Clinton. And he said it on Fox, on the Sean Hannity show, to the American people.
What you’re going to see is a conservative speaker, that takes a conservative Congress, that puts a strategy to fight and win. And let me give you one example. Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right?
But we put together a Benghazi special committee. A select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping. Why? Because she’s untrustable. But no one would have known that any of that had happened had we not fought to make that happen.
With that, his shot at the Speakership was over. He withdrew his candidacy, and Paul Ryan became Speaker until 2018, when Democrats won back the majority.
Less Than 1%
McCarthy then became the Republican Minority Leader, the “Speaker in Waiting” for four years. And now, with his narrow majority, he is not “…going to throw away his shot”. But he does have a significant problem.
Republicans won the majority by winning very narrow victories in New York State. For example, Sean Patrick Maloney, the Democratic Congressman and head of the Congressional Campaign Committee, lost the 17thDistrict by less than 1% of the total vote. And there were three other marginal Districts that Democrats lost by 1% or less. These are not “Freedom Caucus”, right-wing Districts, these are moderate Districts where independent voters determine the outcome.
So McCarthy ought to look at those results, and try to bring his Republican membership towards moderation to maintain the majority for more than just one two-year term. But he cannot.
Deal with MTG
McCarthy made his deal with the far-right of the Freedom Caucus Republicans, the members of Congress who have made their mark as “crazies”. McCarthy only needs 112 votes in the Republican caucus to be nominated for Speaker, but he can only lose five Republican votes when his nomination is voted on by the entire House. Any five Republicans can refuse McCarthy and drop his vote total below 218. And then he’s stuck.
So he’s cut a deal with Marjory Taylor Green, the crazy woman from Georgia, to support him on the right. The deal includes empowering Green with a Committee Chairmanship, and refusing to allow Democrats Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff to serve on the House Intelligence Committee. McCarthy figures it this way: deal with the right, and the right-moderate wing of the Republicans will have nowhere else to go.
But he is vulnerable, not just for the upcoming votes for Speaker, but every day he serves in the job. Any five Republicans can decide it’s time for him to go, and he’ll be faced with the same choice John Boehner confronted. He can be Speaker, but he won’t be able to govern. Boehner cried, walked away, and joined the “dope” coalition.
McCarthy may want to do the same.
