I have found “my place” through political ads – a “liberal swamp person”(is that a movie?) who is/was a “leftist indoctrinator” of children in education (obviously not a successful one). Oh, and I didn’t hold my nose to vote for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg (in the primary). I was proud to vote for all!!
Splitting Logs
In “the old” days, splitting logs was an athletic experience. Instead of just feeding them into a log-splitting machine, the axe-man had to place a heavy wedge shaped piece of iron or steel into the top of the log, then drive it in until the log split. The wedge caused the split, but it was the axe-man driving it home that broke the log into pieces.
Wedge issues are nothing new in American politics. We’ve been “split” since even before the ratification of the Constitution in 1786. Supporters of the new document were “Federalists” (including Madison and Hamilton on the same side) while those opposed (best known, Virginia Governor Patrick Henry of “…Give me Liberty, or Give me Death!!”) were anti-Federalists. Political division is as American as the Founding Fathers, the Fourth of July and the Bill of Rights.
Ohio’s Issue 1
One of the best examples of using a wedge issue to drive-up the vote for one side, was in 2004’s Presidential election in Ohio. It was only eighteen years ago (though it seems like a whole different age). President George W Bush was running a close race to gain re-election against Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. Ohio was a critical source of electoral votes for both sides. And while there was a concerted effort to smear Kerry (the “Swift-Boating” attack), it wasn’t the smear that drove voters to the polls.
Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell of Cincinnati, found a way to make sure that the conservative vote in Ohio showed up. It wasn’t about the Presidential race, rather Blackwell placed a proposed Ohio Constitutional Amendment on the ballot that restricted marriage in the state to between a man and a woman. It banned gay marriages in Ohio. The Amendment passed by 61%, but more importantly voters who supported the Amendment also overwhelmingly supported George Bush, who won the state by a narrow 51% to 49% margin.
Alternative Truths
So while there is nothing new in using particular issues to drive voting blocks apart, in our day of metastasized social media, “driving wedges” is even more effective. And while in the past most issues in American politics had some basis in truth, some of today’s wedge issues are “beyond” truth, more akin to the alternative facts best known from the Trump Administration.
Obviously, “Stop the Steal” is one of these issues. About thirty percent of Americans believe that Joe Biden and the Democrats somehow “stole” the 2020 Presidential election. And while thirty percent is nowhere near the majority needed to win a general election, that number represents a majority of Republican voters. So whether a candidate believed that the election was stolen, is a wedge in hotly contested primaries.
Trump
And for Democrats, Donald Trump himself becomes a wedge, driving the voter turnout up. But, to alter rhetorical implements for a moment, using Trump as a wedge is a “double-edged sword”. If Trump himself is running, Democrats show up in droves, but so do Republicans. The 2020 election was the largest voter turnout in US history, despite the Covid pandemic. And Democrats have discovered that if Trump isn’t on the ballot, but used as a “specter” hovering over the election, it doesn’t always work out well. The Virginia Governor’s election, where Democrat Terry McAuliffe tried to “hang” Trump around his Republican opponent’s neck didn’t get Democrats out to vote.
What did work in Virginia was the faux issue misnamed “Critical Race Theory”. Republican Glenn Youngkin used the false “fact” that public schools were trying to “indoctrinate” children into radical beliefs to motivate his voters to the polls. He claimed that schools were teaching white children were all “racists”, or were encouraging children to “become” gay or transgendered. In a debate McAuliffe made the obvious but dangerous statement that “parents shouldn’t tell schools what to teach”. That helped Youngkin drive his wedge home.
The current US Senate race in Ohio will test the “Trump” theory. All but one of the seven Republican candidates are trying to run in Trump’s footsteps. One even has the campaign slogan – “Pro God, Pro Guns and Pro Trump” (all on an equal footing). His closest opponent claims to be a successful businessman, “…just like Trump, only better”. Whoever wins the primary, they will have a tougher time hiding from the Trump label than Governor Youngkin did.
Fake Issues
And almost all Republican candidates are still following the Trump lead of running, “on the border”. While you don’t hear so much about “THE WALL”, candidates are still using the threat that “illegal immigrants” are going to “TAKE YOUR JOBS”. The problem with that: right now employment is at an all-time high, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%. So while there are still lots of folks at the border, and the Covid restriction that kept them from entering are soon going to be lifted – it’s not a “real” issue.
As part of the “backlash” against social progress, Republican state legislatures are passing a series of laws restricting what is taught in schools. Teachers who try to explain why a child has two mothers could be sued in Florida. The Republican talking point is that somehow those teachers are trying to “groom” children to be gay, or transgendered. And a portion of their base believes it.
Real Issues
But what may be a game changing wedge issue is now in the hands of the US Supreme Court. Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health is a Mississippi case which could overturn the national abortion ruling of Roe v Wade. Mississippi would restrict almost all abortions to sixteen weeks or less. Roe (and the following case, Casey) didn’t allow limits until twenty-four weeks. If, as it seems likely, the Court overturns Roe, and allows states to create their own limits on abortion rights, it could be a huge wedge issue driving voters out to defend women’s rights, by voting for Democratic candidates. That ruling is likely to come down in late May or early June.
But inflation could be the deciding issue of the 2022 election. There are strong economic reasons why a post-pandemic economy would be inflationary. Reasonably, both Democrats and Republicans tried to cushion the fall of the pandemic by spending money. Now that money is “in the market”, and driving prices up. There are even stronger reasons why the Russian sanctions could raise prices. But, like the Carter Administration in 1980, the President (and party in office) during serious inflation will take the blame, regardless of who is at fault. Joe Biden and the Democrats didn’t cause inflation, but Republicans will do all they can to hang it around his neck.
That may be the ultimate wedge.
