On the Right!
Steve Bannon left the White House staff on August 18th.[1] For liberal/progressive types it was a great victory: Bannon, author of the “new nationalism” and seen as the origin of many of the authoritarian ideas of the Trump Presidency had finally gotten his due.
Two month out it seems the celebration was premature. Bannon himself said that he was leaving not in failure, but to take up a new role as “Trump’s wingman.”[2] At the time it looked more like a face-saving gesture, but over the last sixty days the strategy has become clear.
Bannon is now engaged in a battle to keep Republican Senators in line with the Trump “program,” and more significantly, keep them from any thought of Trump’s removal. The battle plan is simple: should a Republican Senator get out of line, Bannon will attack them through the primary system in their state with a more “suitable” Trump supporter.
It’s math. The Republican party currently represents about 29% of the voting population.[3] The “Trump Wing” of the Republican party represents about 45% of the 29%. In a primary election (in every state but California) ONLY the members of the party get to choose who gets to run for the Senate seat in the general election. That means that less than three out of ten voters will choose who the Republican Senate candidate will be. Less than half of them would be considered Trump supporters, but, as primary elections have lower voter turnouts, it’s the more motivated voters that show up.
Enter Bannon, and the 45%. Bannon has made it his role, along with the strength of Breitbart’s online presence and the fortune of the Mercer family, to make sure the 45% exerts its strength in the voting process. He can “primary” more moderate Republicans, who may be able to easily win a general election, but can’t get past the highly polarized primary process.
Just to be clear, 45% of 29% is 13% of the total voting population. So when Bannon claims that the “Trump Voters” represent America’s views, he speaks of a relatively small group. But that group has tremendous influence over the Republican party.
Here’s a couple of recent examples. In the Alabama Senatorial primary, Luther Strange was the “establishment” party candidate, versus Roy Moore the “Bannon” candidate. While there was a lot of nonsense in this particular race, essentially the scandals of both candidates cancelled each other out. Bannon backed Moore, and the “establishment” of the party (including a very wishy-washy Trump) backed Strange. Both could claim to be “Trumpian,” with Bannon stating that his candidate represented Trump’s ideas even more than Trump’s candidate did. The outcome was clear: Moore won by several points, and Bannon could crow about “protecting” Trump from the “old Republicans.”
This is the same situation that incumbent Arizona Senator Jeff Flake faced. In order to run for re-election in 2018 he would be forced to “run to the right” to fend off a challenge from a Bannon/Brietbart backed opponent. Flake, who is very conservative in overall terms, determined that he was unwilling to change his principles to win election, and withdrew from the campaign. This allowed him to speak his mind about President Trump, but it also placed the Arizona Republican Senate candidacy in the hands of a “Bannonite.”
Flake and Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee have both decided not to run for reelection, and been out-spoken in their criticism of President Trump. Arizona’s other Senator, John McCain is facing terminal brain cancer, and he too is speaking up about the President. But the rest of the Republican Senate remains quiet, afraid of facing the Bannon challenge at home.
Senate and House leadership stick with their “party line:” don’t worry about what the President says or does, let’s pass the “agenda.” Whether it’s the tax reform package (a revamp of Ronald Reagan’s trickle down policies) or immigration “reform” (building a wall) they clearly want to get the most out of Trump before his walls come crashing down. They are willing to risk the Trump’s warmongering “diplomacy” in hopes of getting their legislative package through. In this, Bannon serves them as well.
There is one hope in all of this. “Bannonite” candidates for Senate are extreme, they leave much of the middle political spectrum up for grabs. Extremist candidates put states that should be solidly Republican in play for Democrats (currently in the Alabama Senate race, Republican Moore is only up 6% on Democrat Jones.) But that of course depends on the Democratic Party getting itself together for the challenge, something that it hasn’t shown itself capable of, yet.
A quick note:
New News is No News
While Trump, Bannon and Fox News will make huge noises about it, the fact that GPS Fusion (the Steele Dossier) was paid by Democrats for the later portion of the 2016 election has been known since the Dossier itself surfaced in October of 2016. That a Clinton lawyer actually was the Democrat who paid for it is no surprise, there was no other Democratic candidate interested. It also will NOT be a surprise that a Republican primary candidate began payments for the opposition research on Trump. The “fake news” is that this is “new” news.
The “spin” from Republicans, particularly House Intelligence Chair Nunes and Senate Chair Grassley, will be that since the Democrats paid for it, the Steele Dossier is “tainted” and any information that comes from it should be discarded. This is a mis-application of the legal premise, “the fruit of the poisonous tree.” That doctrine states that should police gain evidence illegally (for example, through an illegal search) that any information gained from that evidence cannot be used in court. This applies to the government in government cases and it doesn’t apply to the Steele Dossier. First, the Dossier was compiled by a private individual, and paid for by private individuals. Second, the Dossier is NOT being used as evidence, though it IS being used as a “roadmap” to find evidence.
Ultimately this is just another “shiny object” to distract from the real issues of the Trump campaign.
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-decides-to-get-rid-of-white-house-chief-strategist-stephen-bannon/2017/08/18/98cd5c40-8430-11e7-902a-2a9f2d808496_story.html?utm_term=.86e64b0fb9f7
[2] http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/12/politics/steve-bannon-hong-kong-white-house-donald-trump/index.html
[3] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
