The Bush Model

Trump’s History

As a Democrat, the current actions of Donald Trump seem outrageous. The President of the United States is openly accusing the American electoral system. He says it’s rigged and rotted to the core.  At the minimum that undermining of American democracy is irresponsible.  At the worst, is an open challenge, an attempt to overthrow the will of the people:  in short, an attempted coup.

But from Trump’s standpoint, it is simply an extension of the same theory that has carried him through his political career.  Much of what Donald Trump has done in the past five years was based on the actions of past Republican Presidents.  From the “Law and Order” battle cry of Richard Nixon, to the “Make America Great Again” phrase of Ronald Reagan, the Trump campaign has tried to copy both the successes and failures.  

Certainly Roger Stone was a key influence towards “Nixonian” actions, especially in the 2016 campaign.  Stone, a young “dirty trickster” in the 1972 Nixon campaign, brought that attitude with him as a chief advisor to Trump.  Stone’s “win at all cost” attitude spread itself throughout the senior Trump staff.  One of his close associates, Paul Manafort, became the Campaign Chairman.  It’s why Russian contacts really didn’t seem like a big deal.

Now five years later, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Trump camp is looking to another Republican predecessor on how to win a contested election.  The Trump team is trying to take George W. Bush’s strategy in the Florida recount of 2000, and apply it “writ large” to all of the critical swing states.

Florida, Florida, Florida

The 2000 Florida count was extremely close, with Bush ultimately declared the winner by 526 votes.  The Presidency hinged on Florida’s electoral vote. The slim difference between Bush and Gore was so small, every single ballot actually mattered.  There were all sorts of real issues:  ballots in Palm Beach where intended Gore votes went to third party candidate Ralph Nader, punch card ballots where the “chads” weren’t completely punched out, and incompetent election officials.

While Florida Democrats controlled the counties of Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, the ultimate Florida elections authority was the state.  And the Florida statewide offices were all controlled by Republicans, led by the Republican Governor Jeb Bush.  As the Presidential candidate’s brother, Jeb “recused” himself from election recount activities.  But the rest of his state government was “all in” to make George W Bush the President.

And as a practical matter, they did.  The Florida Secretary of State waited until a moment when the recount favored Bush, then stopped the count.  The issue was thrown into the Courts, where the United States Supreme Court ultimately ruled for “Florida” and stopped the count.  The Court was split, five Republican appointees to four Democrats.  It was exactly where the Republican state government wanted it to stop.

As a practical matter – either candidate could have won Florida, and therefore the Presidency.  It depended on what ballot – standard was applied to counting the ballots.  Gore wins about as often as Bush (details in this CNN article).

Fealty to the King

So what does Trump want?  He wants what he thinks Bush got in Florida, the complete dedication of Republican state party members to his victory.  It’s why Donald Trump is now attacking Governor Kemp in Georgia, and Republican election officials in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Regardless of what the law states, Trump sees their actions as disloyal.  But even more insidiously, he sees them as disrespecting his role as President.

In the background of the last six years of Trumpism, is the “distinction” between Trump and the Republican Party.  Ever since the April 2016 rumors of a Republican revolt at the Cleveland Convention, Trump has been wary of the “mainstream” party.  He’s done everything he can to drag them “into line”.  From McCain to Flake to Sanford to Tillerson, Donald Trump has smacked down any “independent” action or thought in “his” party.

So when Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger “refused” to “change the vote”, or Michigan State Board of Canvasser member Aaron Van Langevelde voted to approve their results, or Arizona Governor Ducey silences a Presidential call; Trump sees betrayal.  Where is his Jeb Bush, or Katherine Harris, or “Brooks Brothers” riot? 

It’s the reason that other Republican leaders like Senators Marco Rubio or Lindsay Graham or Party Chairman Ronna McDaniel have done everything they can to “uphold” Donald Trump.  Graham may even have crossed the line into criminal election interference with his calls to Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.  But they did it to “prove” their “fealty” to Trump, like a medieval noble to the King:  kneel and kiss the ring.

What’s Lost

In the short run, the Trump strategy won’t work.  Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20^th, and Donald Trump will head back to Mara Lago. And the doubt that Trump is sowing in the election process may directly impact the Georgia Senate runoffs.  Republicans in Georgia listening to “their” President may well choose not to participate in the “rigged” system he “exposed”.  So the Democrats might win, and gain control of the US Senate as well.

 But in the longer term, there may be devastating effects.  Trump continues his ironfisted control of his ninety percent of the Republican electorate.  A Trump “tweet” can still make or break a Republican candidate – and that’s not likely to change for the next few years.  The Trump strategy will be to insinuate his loyalists into every level of the Party, from Governors to members of the Board of Canvassers.  Whether Trump himself runs in 2024 won’t be as important as being a “Trumpist” with “the Donald’s” support.  And this time, the election system might not hold up against the cries of “foul play”.  Votes may well be denied – and Democracy will begin to die.