Thanks Mayor Pete

Fall in Love

At the end of October, four months that feel like four years ago, I wrote an essay called Fall in Love. I examined the various Democratic candidates for President of the United States, and the “theory” of Tom Perez, Chairman of the Democratic Party.  Perez said, “I hope you fall in love with multiple people, and then fall in line when we get the nominee” (NBC).

In that essay, I “fell in love” with Pete Buttigieg.  He articulated an advanced America, one that was more than just an end of Trump or an extending of Obama.  Mayor Pete explained his vision of “Day One” after the Trump reign is over.  I thought he did it better than any other candidate, and I endorsed him.

Somewhere in the middle, perhaps during the “long ago” impeachment crisis, Pete seemed to get a little stale.  Like many of the candidates, it was tough for him to find something new.  He wasn’t the only one:  Bernie seemed to be stuck on the same lines, and Elizabeth Warren’s plans were wearying.  But recently Pete found new life, not just in winning Iowa and finishing a close second in New Hampshire, but in a clear understanding of what a Sanders/Trump choice might mean to our country.

“Berning” Down

Pete warned us that “burning down the party” as he thinks Sanders would, might not be the answer to beating Trump.  He offered a “middle path” not only between Democrat Socialism and mainstream Progressives, but also from the Biden/Bernie/Bloomberg/Boomer generation to his own Millennials.  Buttigieg represents the future, and he was calling on Democrats to join him there.

South Carolina’s results made it clear to the Buttigieg “brain trust” that there was no path forward to this nomination.  Tom Steyer, by the way, found the same thing.  Almost $200 million didn’t “buy him love” from Democratic voters.   The Palmetto State and Congressman Jim Clyburn gave Joe Biden’s candidacy new life with a resounding victory.  

Clear a Path

So Mayor Pete withdrew from the election last night.  He did it not only because it was reality, but also because it was the right thing to do.  Pete spent a month warning that a Sanders’ candidacy was dangerous, now he found his own candidacy would further Sanders’ efforts.  So Pete stepped out of the way, allowing more moderate voters to consolidate around another candidate, probably Vice President Biden.  And he did it before Tuesday’s massive primary vote in seventeen states.

I suspect Senator Klobuchar will do the same, after Tuesday and her home state of Minnesota’s primary.  I’m not so sure what Senator Warren will do after her home Massachusetts results; she still is waiting for Sanders’ voters to trend to her side.  Perhaps Warren sees herself as “Sanders lite,” a more progressive candidate without Bernie’s socialist baggage.  

And we don’t know what impact $500 million of Mike Bloomberg’s money will have on Tuesday, though Steyer’s experience might be forewarning.  

Polling indicates that Bernie Sanders will be a big winner on Tuesday, particularly in California with its “mother-lode” of convention delegates.  Warren isn’t cutting into his vote so far, and more moderate Democrats will be split between Biden and Bloomberg.  But Wednesday morning will tell us where the Democratic Party stands for the next four months. We are either on the way to a Sanders nomination, or we are in for a grueling knockdown fight between Sanders and the moderates, probably Biden not Bloomberg.

The Future 

But one thing is for sure.  Pete Buttigieg showed not only a tremendous amount of political “grace” in getting off the field, but also a tremendous amount of political acumen.  He knows that the future of the Party is his.  Whatever the outcome of Super Tuesday or even the 2020 election, all of the current leaders of both political parties will be gone by 2024.  Sixty may be the new forty, but being in their mid-eighties will stop the candidacies of Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, and Trump in four years. 

So Pete did the right and the smart thing.  He took his wins and his political capital, and he saved it for a future run.  I suspect he will ultimately endorse another candidate for the nomination, but he will wait to see Tuesday’s results before he does.  Pete will not be President in 2020.  But he is “the future” of the Democratic Party, and he will be back.

In the meantime, my own Ohio Primary is coming up on St. Patrick’s Day.  There’s good reason not to vote early, the candidates are changing so fast that a vote today might be meaningless in three weeks.  I suspect Joe Biden will still be viable, and I anticipate he will have my vote, even though he didn’t win my heart.  As Tom Perez said, it will be time to “fall in line”.